Title: Dark energy model selection with current and future data Show Chinese title

Title: 当前和未来数据的暗能量模型选择

Abstract: The main goal of the next generation of weak lensing probes is to constrain cosmological parameters by measuring the mass distribution and geometry of the low redshift Universe and thus to test the concordance model of cosmology. A future all-sky tomographic cosmic shear survey with design properties similar to Euclid has the potential to provide the statistical accuracy required to distinguish between different dark energy models. In order to assess the model selection capability of such a probe, we consider the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w_0$. We forecast the Bayes factor of future observations, in the light of current information from Planck by computing the predictive posterior odds distribution. We find that Euclid is unlikely to overturn current model selection results, and that the future data are likely to be compatible with a cosmological constant model. This result holds for a wide range of priors. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 下一代弱引力透镜探测的主要目标是通过测量低红移宇宙的质量分布和几何结构来约束宇宙学参数，从而检验宇宙学的协调模型。 一个未来全天空分层宇宙剪切调查，其设计特性类似于欧几里得（Euclid），有可能提供区分不同暗能量模型所需的统计精度。 为了评估这种探测器的模型选择能力，我们考虑了暗能量的状态方程参数$w_0$。 我们根据普朗克当前的信息计算预测后验奇数分布，以预测未来观测的贝叶斯因子。 我们发现，欧几里得不太可能推翻当前的模型选择结果，未来的数据很可能与宇宙常数模型相容。 这一结果适用于广泛的先验条件。