Title: A Mixed-Method Approach to Determining Contact Matrices in the Cox's Bazar Refugee Settlement Show Chinese title

Title: 一种混合方法用于确定科克斯巴扎尔难民营中的接触矩阵

Abstract: Contact matrices are an important ingredient in age-structured epidemic models to inform the simulated spread of the disease between sub-groups of the population. These matrices are generally derived using resource-intensive diary-based surveys and few exist in the Global South or tailored to vulnerable populations. In particular, no contact matrices exist for refugee settlements - locations under-served by epidemic models in general. In this paper we present a novel, mixed-method approach, for deriving contact matrices in populations which combines a lightweight, rapidly deployable, survey with an agent-based model of the population informed by census and behavioural data. We use this method to derive the first set of contact matrices for the Cox's Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh. The matrices from the refugee settlement show strong banding effects due to different age cut-offs in attendance at certain venues, such as distribution centres and religious sites, as well as the important contribution of the demographic profile of the settlement which was encoded in the model. These can have significant implications to the modelled disease dynamics. To validate our approach, we also apply our method to the population of the UK and compare our derived matrices against well-known contact matrices previously collected using traditional approaches. Overall, our findings demonstrate that our mixed-method approach can address some of the challenges of both the traditional and previously proposed agent-based approaches to deriving contact matrices, and has the potential to be rolled-out in other resource-constrained environments. This work therefore contributes to a broader aim of developing new methods and mechanisms of data collection for modelling disease spread in refugee and IDP settlements and better serving these vulnerable communities. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 接触矩阵是年龄结构流行病模型中的重要组成部分，用于指导疾病在人口子群体之间的模拟传播。 这些矩阵通常通过资源密集的日记式调查获得，而在南半球或针对弱势人群的环境中则很少见。 特别是，难民营定居点没有接触矩阵——这些地点在一般流行病模型中服务不足。 在本文中，我们提出了一种新颖的混合方法，用于推导结合轻量级、快速部署的调查与基于代理的模型的人口接触矩阵，该模型由人口普查和行为数据提供信息。 我们使用这种方法为孟加拉国科克斯巴扎尔难民营推导了第一组接触矩阵。 难民营的矩阵由于某些场所（如分发中心和宗教场所）的年龄分界不同而表现出明显的分层效应，以及该定居点的人口统计特征的重要贡献，这些特征在模型中被编码。 这可能对模拟的疾病动态产生重大影响。 为了验证我们的方法，我们还将该方法应用于英国人口，并将我们推导的矩阵与之前使用传统方法收集的著名接触矩阵进行比较。 总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，我们的混合方法可以解决传统方法和之前提出的基于代理的方法在推导接触矩阵方面的一些挑战，并且有可能在其他资源有限的环境中推广。 因此，这项工作有助于实现更广泛的目标，即开发新的数据收集方法和机制，以在难民营和国内流离失所者定居点建模疾病传播，并更好地服务于这些脆弱社区。