Title: The short- and long-term determinants of fertility in Uruguay Show Chinese title

Title: 乌拉圭生育率的短期和长期决定因素

Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of fertility among women at different stages of their reproductive lives in Uruguay. To this end, we employ time series analysis methods based on data from 1968 to 2021 and panel data techniques based on department-level statistical information from 1984 to 2019. The results of our first econometric exercise indicate a cointegration relationship between fertility and economic performance, education and infant mortality, with differences observed by reproductive stage. We find a negative relationship between income and fertility for women aged 20-29 that persists for women aged 30 and over. This result suggests that having children is perceived as an opportunity cost for women in this age group. We also observe a negative relationship between education and adolescent fertility, which has implications for the design of public policies. A panel data analysis with econometric techniques allowing us to control for unobserved heterogeneity confirms that income is a relevant factor for all groups of women and reinforces the crucial role of education in reducing teenage fertility. We also identify a negative correlation between fertility and employment rates for women aged 30 and above. We outline some possible explanations for these findings in the context of work-life balance issues and argue for the importance of implementing social policies to address them. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 本文研究了乌拉圭不同生育阶段女性的生育决定因素。 为此，我们采用基于1968年至2021年数据的时间序列分析方法，以及基于1984年至2019年部门级统计数据的面板数据分析技术。 我们第一次计量经济实验的结果表明，生育率与经济表现、教育和婴儿死亡率之间存在协整关系，且在不同生育阶段存在差异。 我们发现20-29岁的女性收入与生育率呈负相关，这种负相关关系在30岁及以上的女性中依然存在。 这一结果表明，对于这个年龄段的女性来说，生育孩子被视为一种机会成本。 我们还观察到教育水平与青少年生育率之间的负相关关系，这对公共政策的设计具有重要意义。 使用允许控制未观测异质性的计量经济技术进行的面板数据分析确认了收入对所有女性群体都是一个重要因素，并加强了教育在降低青少年生育率中的关键作用。 我们还发现30岁以上的女性生育率与就业率之间存在负相关关系。 我们在工作与生活平衡问题的背景下概述了这些发现的一些可能解释，并强调实施社会政策以解决这些问题的重要性。