Title: The (Short-Term) Effects of Large Language Models on Unemployment and Earnings Show Chinese title

Title: 大型语言模型对失业和收入的（短期）影响

Abstract: Large Language Models have spread rapidly since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, accompanied by claims of major productivity gains but also concerns about job displacement. This paper examines the short-run labor market effects of LLM adoption by comparing earnings and unemployment across occupations with differing levels of exposure to these technologies. Using a Synthetic Difference in Differences approach, we estimate the impact of LLM exposure on earnings and unemployment. Our findings show that workers in highly exposed occupations experienced earnings increases following ChatGPT's introduction, while unemployment rates remained unchanged. These results suggest that initial labor market adjustments to LLMs operate primarily through earnings rather than worker reallocation. Show Chinese abstract

Abstract: 自2022年底ChatGPT发布以来，大型语言模型迅速传播，伴随着重大生产力提升的声明，但也引发了对工作替代的担忧。 本文通过比较不同暴露水平的职业之间的收入和失业情况，研究了LLM采用的短期劳动力市场影响。 使用合成差异中的差异方法，我们估计了LLM暴露对收入和失业的影响。 我们的研究结果表明，高度暴露职业的工人在ChatGPT推出后经历了收入增加，而失业率保持不变。 这些结果表明，LLM初始的劳动力市场调整主要通过收入而非工人再分配进行。