标题： 天文研究基础设施未来年度碳足迹的情景 显示英文标题

标题： Scenarios of future annual carbon footprints of astronomical research infrastructures

摘要： 研究基础设施已被确定为天文学研究中温室气体排放的重要来源。 基于对1211个地面天文台和太空任务的全面清单，我们评估了从1945年到2022年间天文学设施数量及其碳足迹的变化情况。 我们发现，太空任务在天文学中的温室气体排放占主导地位，在20世纪60年代末出现了一个重要的峰值，随后有所下降，但过去十年又出现了上升趋势。 根据过去的趋势进行推断，我们预测天文学设施的温室气体排放在未来不会出现显著下降，甚至可能大幅上升，除非改变研究实践。 我们证明，运行中的天文学设施数量持续增长是不环保的。 这些发现应促使天文学界反思必要的变革，以使天文学研究走上可持续发展的道路。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Research infrastructures have been identified as an important source of greenhouse gas emissions of astronomical research. Based on a comprehensive inventory of 1,211 ground-based observatories and space missions, we assessed the evolution of the number of astronomical facilities and their carbon footprint from 1945 to 2022. We found that space missions dominate greenhouse gas emissions in astronomy, showing an important peak at the end of the 1960ies, followed by a decrease that has turned again into a rise over the last decade. Extrapolating past trends, we predict that greenhouse gas emissions from astronomical facilities will experience no strong decline in the future, and may even rise substantially, unless research practices are changed. We demonstrate that a continuing growth in the number of operating astronomical facilities is not environmentally sustainable. These findings should motivate the astronomical community to reflect about the necessary evolutions that would put astronomical research on a sustainable path.