标题： 通过临时隔离最优减少疫情爆发规模 显示英文标题

标题： Optimal reduction of an epidemic outbreak size via temporary quarantine

摘要： 理解疫情传播的动力学对于有效的控制措施至关重要。 在新冠疫情中，实施了隔离措施以减少感染，同时减轻社会和经济影响，这引发了如何最大化隔离效率的问题。 以往关于使用易感-感染-恢复（SIR）及其类似模型的周期性隔离研究确定了周期性隔离的最佳持续时间。 然而，单次隔离的最佳启动时间问题仍未解决。 在这里，我们使用SIR模型来确定最佳隔离启动时间，通过计算隔离开始时的最佳易感比例，以最小化整体疫情规模。 我们的分析从一个充分混合的场景扩展到高度异质的社会网络。 我们表明，最佳隔离启动时间与所谓的“群体免疫”阈值密切相关，在疫情下降开始时出现。 重要的是，提供一种在不同网络结构中识别最佳隔离启动时间的方法，对疫情控制具有重要意义。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Understanding the dynamics of an epidemic spread is crucial for effective control measures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, quarantines were implemented to minimize infections while mitigating social and economic impacts, raising the question of how to maximize quarantine efficiency. Previous research on periodic quarantines using the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) and similar models identified optimal duration for periodic quarantines. However, the question of the optimal initiation time for a single quarantine remains unanswered. Here, we use the SIR model in order to determine the optimal quarantine initiation time, by computing the optimal susceptible fraction at the onset of the quarantine, which minimizes the total outbreak size. Our analysis extends from a well-mixed scenario to strongly-heterogeneous social networks. We show that the optimal quarantine initiation time is closely related to the so-called "herd immunity" threshold, occurring at the onset of epidemic decline. Importantly, providing a methodology for identifying the optimal quarantine initiation time across different network structures, entails significant implications for epidemic control.