标题： 将上游供应链整合到发电扩展规划中 显示英文标题

标题： Integrating Upstream Supply Chains into Generation Expansion Planning

摘要： 日益增长的电力需求凸显了需要考虑上游供应链约束的安全可靠发电扩展规划的重要性。 传统模型常常忽略材料、制造能力、部署前置时间以及现场可用性等方面的限制，这可能导致计划资源的可用性延迟，从而威胁系统可靠性。 本文介绍了一种多阶段供应链约束的发电扩展规划（SC-GEP）模型，在优化长期投资的同时考虑材料可用性、生产限制、空间和时间约束以及退役资产的材料再利用。 一种分解算法可以高效地解决由此产生的MILP问题。 马里兰州案例研究表明，供应链约束会改变技术选择，放大由前置时间引起的部署延迟，并促使更早投资于前置时间较短、低材料密集度的选项。 在低需求情景下，供应链约束会使投资成本增加12亿美元。 在高需求情况下，持续的发电和备用不足现象出现，强调了将上游约束纳入长期规划的必要性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Rising electricity demand underscores the need for secure and reliable generation expansion planning that accounts for upstream supply chain constraints. Traditional models often overlook limitations in materials, manufacturing capacity, lead times for deployment, and field availability, which can delay availability of planned resources and thus to threaten system reliability. This paper introduces a multi-stage supply chain-constrained generation expansion planning (SC-GEP) model that optimizes long-term investments while capturing material availability, production limits, spatial and temporal constraints, and material reuse from retired assets. A decomposition algorithm efficiently solves the resulting MILP. A Maryland case study shows that supply chain constraints shift technology choices, amplify deployment delays caused by lead times, and prompt earlier investment in shorter lead-time, low-material-intensity options. In the low-demand scenario, supply chain constraints raise investment costs by $1.2 billion. Under high demand, persistent generation and reserve shortfalls emerge, underscoring the need to integrate upstream constraints into long-term planning.