标题： 情景的结构 显示英文标题

标题： The Structure of Scenarios

摘要： 情景会引发可能被忽略的可能性以及它们之间的因果关系。 即使可用信息太少而无法评估可靠的概率，也可以通过突出不同替代方案的共同后果，或者相反，明显相似替代方案的不同后果，来分析所激发的替代方案和感知后果之间的联结结构。 虽然根据当前实践，这种结构是通过探索由两个宏观特征交叉得到的四种可能性来分析的，但我将说明超图分析所带来的更广泛的可能性。 讨论了一个应用实例。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Scenarios elicit possibilities that may be ignored otherwise, as well as causal relations between them. Even when too little information is available to assess reliable probabilities, the structure of linkages between evoked alternatives and perceived consequences can be analyzed by highlighting shared consequences of different alternatives or, conversely, diverging consequences of apparently similar alternatives. While according to current practice this structure is analyzed by exploring four possibilities obtained by crossing two macro-features, I illustrate the wider possibilities enabled by hypergraph analysis. An application is discussed.