标题： 德国失业救济金II未领取情况：使用行政数据的纵向研究 显示英文标题

标题： Non-Take-Up of Unemployment Benefit II in Germany: A Longitudinal Perspective Using Administrative Data

摘要： 大量研究表明，许多符合资格的家庭并未申请针对特定收入的福利，这种现象被称为未领取。 实证研究通常将未领取视为一种理性决策，当申请的感知净效用为负时会发生。 理论上，长期因素可以显著影响这一决策。 尽管纵向因素可能具有相关性，但关于其影响的证据仍然有限。 本研究通过在分析与失业救济金II（UB II）相关的未领取行为中纳入长期因素来弥补这一差距，UB II是德国的基本针对特定收入的社会福利计划。 使用来自德国劳动力市场和社会保障面板研究（PASS）2008年至2020年的数据，以及与德国联邦就业局（PASS-ADIAB）的行政数据相结合，本研究重建了家庭在非调查期间的福利领取和收入历史。 这使得可以利用过去福利领取的持续时间和频率来对符合条件的家庭进行福利未领取建模。 此外，使用行政数据可以减少自我报告福利领取带来的偏差。 使用GETTSIM，一个开源微观模拟模型，首次应用于PASS数据集，模拟家庭是否符合UB II的资格。 研究结果表明，长期因素显著影响申请UB II的可能性。 具体而言，较长的福利领取历史会增加这种可能性，而较高的收入潜力和积极的收入冲击则会减少这种可能性。 包括长期因素显著影响了传统使用的未领取决定因素的估计影响，表明现有模型在忽略这些因素时可能存在误设。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Extensive research demonstrates that many households eligible for means-tested benefits do not claim them, a phenomenon known as non-take-up. Empirical studies frequently conceptualise non-take-up as a rational decision, occurring when the perceived net utility of claiming is negative. Theoretically, long-term factors can substantially impact this decision. Despite the potential relevance of longitudinal aspects, evidence on their influence remains limited. This study addresses this gap by incorporating long-term factors in the analysis of non-take-up behaviour relating to Unemployment Benefit II (UB II), Germany's basic means-tested welfare programme. Using data from the German Panel Study Labour Market and Social Security (PASS) from 2008 to 2020, linked with administrative data from Germany's Federal Employment Agency (PASS-ADIAB), this study reconstructs households' benefit receipt and income histories, even during non-survey periods. This allows modelling benefit non-take-up for eligible households using the duration and frequency of past benefit receipt. In addition, the use of administrative data mitigates bias from self-reported benefit receipt. Household eligibility for UB II is simulated using GETTSIM, an open-source microsimulation model, applied to the PASS dataset for the first time. Findings indicate that long-term factors significantly influence the probability of claiming UB II. Specifically, a longer history of benefit receipt increases this probability, whereas higher income potential and positive income shocks reduce it. Including long-term factors substantially affects the estimated impact of traditionally used determinants of non-take-up, indicating a potential misspecification in existing models that neglect them.