标题： 分析投资羊群效应对消费的挤出效应：最优控制理论方法 显示英文标题

标题： Analyzing the Crowding-Out Effect of Investment Herding on Consumption: An Optimal Control Theory Approach

摘要： 投资羊群效应，即家庭模仿他人的决策而非依赖自己的分析的现象，对金融市场和家庭行为有重要影响。 过度的投资羊群效应可能会减少投资并导致家庭消费的枯竭，这被称为挤出效应。 尽管现有研究已经定性地考察了投资羊群效应对消费的影响，但这一领域的定量研究仍然有限。 在本工作中，我们研究了在投资羊群效应影响下家庭的最优投资和消费决策。 我们构建了一个优化问题，以模拟投资羊群效应如何随时间影响家庭决策。 基于最优控制理论，我们求解了最优投资和消费决策的解析解。 我们理论上分析了投资羊群效应对家庭消费决策的影响，并证明了挤出效应的存在。 我们进一步探讨了利率、超额收益率和波动率等参数如何影响挤出效应。 最后，我们进行了一项真实数据测试，以验证我们对挤出效应的理论分析。 这项研究对于理解投资羊群效应对家庭消费的影响以及为寻求刺激消费和减轻投资羊群效应负面影响的政策制定者提供有价值的见解至关重要。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Investment herding, a phenomenon where households mimic the decisions of others rather than relying on their own analysis, has significant effects on financial markets and household behavior. Excessive investment herding may reduce investments and lead to a depletion of household consumption, which is called the crowding-out effect. While existing research has qualitatively examined the impact of investment herding on consumption, quantitative studies in this area remain limited. In this work, we investigate the optimal investment and consumption decisions of households under the impact of investment herding. We formulate an optimization problem to model how investment herding influences household decisions over time. Based on the optimal control theory, we solve for the analytical solutions of optimal investment and consumption decisions. We theoretically analyze the impact of investment herding on household consumption decisions and demonstrate the existence of the crowding-out effect. We further explore how parameters, such as interest rate, excess return rate, and volatility, influence the crowding-out effect. Finally, we conduct a real data test to validate our theoretical analysis of the crowding-out effect. This study is crucial to understanding the impact of investment herding on household consumption and offering valuable insights for policymakers seeking to stimulate consumption and mitigate the negative effects of investment herding on economic growth.