标题： 考虑区域黑暗时段事件的欧洲电力系统规划自适应鲁棒优化 显示英文标题

标题： Adaptive Robust Optimization for European Electricity System Planning Considering Regional Dunkelflaute Events

摘要： 本研究利用自适应鲁棒优化（ARO）框架，开发了一个完全脱碳的欧洲电力系统容量扩展模型。该模型内生地识别最坏区域黑暗期事件，即风能和太阳能供应低谷的持续时期，并在一次优化运行中包含多个极端天气情景。结果表明，系统成本随着这些事件地理范围的扩大呈非线性增长：单一最坏情况区域中断使成本增加9%，但跨多个区域的广泛中断导致成本大幅上升，最高达51%。当黑暗期条件覆盖欧洲大部分地区时，额外成本影响趋于平稳，最大增加71%。最优技术组合随着天气压力的严重程度而变化：虽然可再生能源、电池和区域间传输足以应对局部事件，但大规模中断需要长期氢存储和负荷削减以保持系统弹性。中欧地区，特别是德国和法国，成为系统瓶颈，而外围地区则承担补偿性过度建设的成本。这些发现强调了需要一种协调的欧洲政策战略，超越国家规划以支持跨境基础设施投资，扩大长时储能等灵活技术，并促进可再生能源在地理上的平衡部署，以缓解与黑暗期事件相关的系统性风险。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This study develops a capacity expansion model for a fully decarbonized European electricity system using an Adaptive Robust Optimization (ARO) framework. The model endogenously identifies the worst regional Dunkelflaute events, prolonged periods of low wind and solar availability, and incorporates multiple extreme weather realizations within a single optimization run. Results show that system costs rise nonlinearly with the geographic extent of these events: a single worst-case regional disruption increases costs by 9%, but broader disruptions across multiple regions lead to much sharper increases, up to 51%. As Dunkelflaute conditions extend across most of Europe, additional cost impacts level off, with a maximum increase of 71%. The optimal technology mix evolves with the severity of weather stress: while renewables, batteries, and interregional transmission are sufficient to manage localized events, large-scale disruptions require long-term hydrogen storage and load shedding to maintain system resilience. Central European regions, especially Germany and France, emerge as systemic bottlenecks, while peripheral regions bear the cost of compensatory overbuilding. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated European policy strategy that goes beyond national planning to support cross-border infrastructure investment, scale up flexible technologies such as long-duration storage, and promote a geographically balanced deployment of renewables to mitigate systemic risks associated with Dunkelflaute events.