标题： 关于二元预测技能的评估 显示英文标题

标题： On the Evaluation of Skill in Binary Forecast

摘要： 一个好的预测对于科学、经济和行政目的非常重要。因此，有必要知道一个预测因子是否足够有技能来预测未来。鉴于在各个学科中对预测的依赖性增加，设计了预测技能指数（PSI）。使用了24个数值示例来展示PSI方法的工作原理。结果表明，PSI不仅为随机预测和总是预测相同值的情况给予相同的分数，还为正确预测罕见或极端事件给予非平凡的分数。此外，PSI可以通过给予不同的技能分数来区分罕见或极端事件的完美预测与随机事件的预测，而其他传统方法无法做到这一点，并给予相同的分数。还使用了泰国银行在2000年至2019年期间对实际国内生产总值增长的预测数据，以演示PSI如何在实践中评估预测者的技能。 显示英文摘要

摘要： A good prediction is very important for scientific, economic, and administrative purposes. It is therefore necessary to know whether a predictor is skillful enough to predict the future. Given the increased reliance on predictions in various disciplines, prediction skill index (PSI) is devised. Twenty-four numerical examples are used to demonstrate how the PSI method works. The results show that the PSI awards not only the same score for random prediction and always predicting the same value but also nontrivial scores for correct prediction of rare or extreme events. Moreover, the PSI can distinguish the difference between the perfect forecast of rare or extreme events and that of random events by awarding different skill scores while other conventional methods cannot and award the same score. The data on growth of real gross domestic product forecast of the Bank of Thailand between 2000 and 2019 are also used to demonstrate how the PSI evaluates skill of the forecaster in practice.