标题： 长尾，自动化和劳动力 显示英文标题

标题： Long Tails, Automation and Labor

摘要： 经济学中的一个核心问题是自动化是否会取代人类劳动并降低生活水平。 尽管以往的研究通常将这个问题视为人类劳动与机器之间的竞争，但我们将其视为人类消费者与人类供应商之间的竞争。 具体来说，我们观察到人类需求倾向于长尾分布，即一系列在总体需求中具有重要意义的利基商品。 反过来，这些长尾需求反映在满足这些需求的商品和服务中。 在此基础上，我们提出了一种基于长尾分布的经济活动理论模型，其中对新利基产出的需求创新与对成熟产出的供应自动化创新之间存在竞争。 我们的模型给出了自动化和劳动份额的解析表达式和渐近线，仅涉及四个参数：供应和需求的创新率、长尾分布的指数以及初始值。 我们通过非线性随机回归对历史美国经济数据进行了验证，结果出人意料地准确。 显示英文摘要

摘要： A central question in economics is whether automation will displace human labor and diminish standards of living. Whilst prior works typically frame this question as a competition between human labor and machines, we frame it as a competition between human consumers and human suppliers. Specifically, we observe that human needs favor long tail distributions, i.e., a long list of niche items that are substantial in aggregate demand. In turn, the long tails are reflected in the goods and services that fulfill those needs. With this background, we propose a theoretical model of economic activity on a long tail distribution, where innovation in demand for new niche outputs competes with innovation in supply automation for mature outputs. Our model yields analytic expressions and asymptotes for the shares of automation and labor in terms of just four parameters: the rates of innovation in supply and demand, the exponent of the long tail distribution and an initial value. We validate the model via non-linear stochastic regression on historical US economic data with surprising accuracy.