标题： 由热浪驱动的空调采用可能在未来短期内使德国电力需求增加14吉瓦 显示英文标题

标题： Heatwave-driven air conditioning adoption could increase German electricity demand by 14 GW in the near future

摘要： 由气候变化驱动的热浪加剧正在加速移动空调（AC）系统的采用。 移动空调系统的快速大规模采用可能会给电网和电力系统带来额外的压力。 本研究提出了一种新方法，以在系统层面以及在高时间和空间粒度上估算空调系统的电力需求。 我们将该方法应用于德国一个近未来的热浪情景，在此情景中，家庭空调采用率在类似2025年7月的热浪期间从目前的19%增加到35%。 我们通过结合天气数据、人口普查数据、社会人口假设、出行模式和温度依赖的空调激活函数，分析了德国范围内196,428个每平方公里的网格单元的影响。 我们发现，新购买的移动空调系统的电力需求可能使峰值负荷增加超过14 GW（23%），城市热点地区每平方公里达到5.8 MW。 时间模式会产生明显的下午高峰，这与较低的光伏发电量同时发生，可能会加剧电力系统稳定性挑战。 我们的研究结果强调了主动能源系统规划的紧迫性，以应对新兴的用电高峰。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Intensifying heatwaves driven by climate change are accelerating the adoption of mobile air conditioning (AC) systems. A rapid mass adoption of such AC systems could create additional stress on electricity grids and the power system. This study presents a novel method to estimate the electricity demand from AC systems both at system level and at high temporal and spatial granularity. We apply the method to a near-future heatwave scenario in Germany in which household AC adoption increases from current 19% to 35% during a heatwave similar to the one of July 2025. We analyze the effects for 196,428 grid cells of one square kilometer across Germany, by combining weather data, census data, socio-demographic assumptions, mobility patterns, and temperature-dependent AC activation functions. We find that electricity demand of newly purchased mobile AC systems could increase the peak load by over 14 GW (23%), with urban hot-spots reaching 5.8 MW per square kilometer. The temporal pattern creates a pronounced afternoon peak that coincides with lower photovoltaic generation, potentially exacerbating power system stability challenges. Our findings underscore the urgency for proactive energy system planning to manage emerging demand peaks.