标题： 赤道非洲闪电：过去、现在和未来 显示英文标题

标题： Equatorial African Lightning: Past. Present and Future

摘要： 热带地区的雷击是自然灾害中最主要的致死原因之一。 刚果雨林地区拥有世界上最高的闪电频闪率，由于贯穿赤道的热带辐合带（ITCZ）全年在南北半球之间的移动，该地区的闪电特性具有明显的季节性。 闪电频闪率（LFR）在春分月达到峰值，而闪电辐射强度则在北半球夏季月份达到最强值。 在热带降雨测量任务（TRMM）期间（1998-2015年），刚果雨林地区的年度LFR稳步增加，然而平均闪电辐射强度和峰值闪电辐射强度分别以每年约1%和约1.5%的速度下降，这与气候变暖背景下预期的极端天气加剧现象相悖。 深入分析表明，与北半球夏季期间气溶胶成核和热动力学不稳定性效应相比，来自大西洋的刚果盆地水汽汇聚对闪电的影响是主要贡献者。 此外，有研究表明，在逐渐变暖的气候条件下，萨赫勒地区盛行的ITCZ强度有所增强，从而削弱了向刚果盆地的水汽流入，导致近年来观察到的闪电强度下降。 因此，基于代表性浓度路径（RCP）8.5排放情景的全球模型模拟结果显示，到2100年，刚果盆地的闪电特性预计会显著减弱（约50%）。 关键词：闪电，LIS，刚果盆地，萨赫勒，水汽通量，未来预测。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Lightning strikes are one of the leading causes of death among natural disasters in tropical regions. The Congo rainforests host the highest rates of lightning flashes in the world and the lightning properties in this region have a strong seasonality owing to the cross-equatorial movements of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) throughout the year. The Lightning Flash Rates (LFR) are found to peak during the Equinoctial months while lightning radiance assumes the strongest values during the Boreal Summer months. Across the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) duration, (1998-2015), annual LFR in the Congo rainforest increases steadily, however, the average and the peak lightning radiances decrease by ~1%/year and ~1.5%/year respectively which is counter-intuitive to the expected intensification in weather extremes in a warming climate. An in-depth analysis highlighted the influence of moisture convergence over the Congo Basin from the Atlantic as the primary contributor to lightning compared to the aerosol nucleation and thermodynamic instability effects during the boreal summers. Further, it has been proposed that in a gradually warming climate, the strength of the prevailing ITCZ over Sahel region has intensified thereby weakening the moisture ingress towards the Congo Basin, and this resulted in the observed reduction in lightning intensity in recent years. Consequently, the long-term projections of lightning properties from global model simulations revealed a prominent weakening in lightning (~50%) over the Congo Basin by the year 2100 assuming the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emission scenarios. Key Words: Lightning, LIS, Congo Basin, Sahel, Moisture Flux, Future projections.