标题： 科学推理中的发表偏差（“文件柜问题”） 显示英文标题

标题： Publication Bias (The "File-Drawer Problem") in Scientific Inference

摘要： 发表偏倚发生在一项研究是否被发表的概率取决于其结果的统计显著性时。 这种偏倚通常被称为文件柜效应，因为未发表的结果被想象为被塞在研究人员的文件柜中，这可能严重阻碍从文献中收集的研究的统计结果的结合。 对于发表偏倚的任何合理的定量模型，文件柜中丢失的少量研究就会产生显著的偏倚。 这一结果与广为人知的失败安全文件柜（FSFD）方法相矛盾，该方法常用于社会、医学和心理研究中，以设定发表偏倚潜在危害的界限。 这种方法错误地将文件柜视为无偏倚的，几乎总是低估发表偏倚的严重性。 大量不仅包括心理研究，还包括医学和社会科学的研究，错误地依赖这种方法来验证所声称的发现。 只有在确定所有已进行的研究都被包含的情况下，统计合并的结果才能被信任。 在文献调查中，这种确定性几乎是不可能实现的。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Publication bias arises whenever the probability that a study is published depends on the statistical significance of its results. This bias, often called the file-drawer effect since the unpublished results are imagined to be tucked away in researchers' file cabinets, is potentially a severe impediment to combining the statistical results of studies collected from the literature. With almost any reasonable quantitative model for publication bias, only a small number of studies lost in the file-drawer will produce a significant bias. This result contradicts the well known Fail Safe File Drawer (FSFD) method for setting limits on the potential harm of publication bias, widely used in social, medical and psychic research. This method incorrectly treats the file drawer as unbiased, and almost always misestimates the seriousness of publication bias. A large body of not only psychic research, but medical and social science studies, has mistakenly relied on this method to validate claimed discoveries. Statistical combination can be trusted only if it is known with certainty that all studies that have been carried out are included. Such certainty is virtually impossible to achieve in literature surveys.