标题： 观测与理论计算的低层平流层臭氧耗竭和冷却的11年周期变化 显示英文标题

标题： Observations and Theoretical Calculations of 11-Year Cyclic Variations in Lower-Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Cooling

摘要： 对下平流层臭氧和温度时空变化的观测和定量理解可以提供臭氧耗竭机制的特征，并在测试非卤素温室气体对臭氧层的影响方面在气候模型中起着重要作用。 在这里，我们报告了自20世纪60年代和1979年以来地面臭氧探空仪和卫星测量的结果，显示南极洲和中纬度地区的下平流层臭氧和温度均表现出显著的11年周期性变化，而热带地区没有明显的周期性变化。 这些观测结果出乎化学-气候模型（CCMs）的意料，但被宇宙射线驱动的电子诱导反应（CRE）臭氧耗竭模型所预测。 值得注意的是，无参数的CRE理论计算在南极昭和站的臭氧损耗垂直分布上与观测结果完全一致，并且出色地再现了所有全球区域下平流层臭氧和温度的时间序列变化。 此外，20世纪80年代和90年代热带地区下平流层臭氧的大规模耗竭也由CRE计算再现。 而且，CRE计算显示出下平流层臭氧和温度未来趋势的复杂现象，这些现象受到宇宙射线通量未来趋势的强烈影响。 后者甚至可能导致到2100年南极洲的臭氧洞几乎无法恢复，以及热带地区的臭氧层无法恢复到20世纪80年代的水平。 这些结果还明显表明，下平流层臭氧和温度仅受宇宙射线和臭氧消耗物质的控制。 这项研究大大提高了对全球下平流层臭氧耗竭和气候变化的定量理解，并提供了对未来趋势的新预测。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Observations and quantitative understanding of spatio-temporary variations in lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature can provide fingerprints for the mechanisms of ozone depletion and play an important role in testing the impact of non-halogen greenhouse gases on the ozone layer in climate models. Here we report from ground-based ozonesonde and satellite-based measurements since the 1960s and 1979 respectively that both lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature display pronounced 11-year cyclic variations over Antarctica and mid-latitudes, while no apparent cyclic variations over the tropics. These observations were unexpected from the chemistry-climate models (CCMs) but predicted by the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) model of ozone depletion. Remarkably, no-parameter CRE theoretical calculations give the ozone loss vertical profile in perfect agreement with observations at the Antarctic Syowa station and excellently reproduce time-series variations of both lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature in all global regions. Furthermore, the large lower-stratospheric ozone depletion over the tropics in the 1980s and 1990s is also reproduced by CRE calculations. Moreover, CRE calculations exhibit complex phenomena in future trends of lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature, which are strongly affected by the future trends of cosmic-ray fluxes. The latter might even lead to almost no recovery of the ozone hole over Antarctica and no returning to the 1980 level over the tropics by 2100. The results also strikingly demonstrate that both lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature are controlled by cosmic rays and ozone-depleting substances only. This study greatly improves quantitative understanding of ozone depletion and climate in the global lower stratosphere and offers new predictions on future trends.