标题： 电力基础设施脆弱性建模以应对气候变化风险和适应 显示英文标题

标题： Fragility Modeling of Power Grid Infrastructure for Addressing Climate Change Risks and Adaptation

摘要： 电力网格的韧性受到自然灾害的威胁。由于气候变化，与气候相关的灾害变得越来越频繁和强烈。统计分析清楚地表明，近年来事件（停电）数量及其后果有所增加。因此，理解并量化基础设施对外部压力源的韧性至关重要，这是制定有效的气候变化适应策略的基础。为此，需要强大的脆弱性模型和其他脆弱性模型。这些模型用于评估资产损坏程度，并根据给定的危险强度测量来量化损失。在此背景下，进行了全面的文献回顾，以阐明针对输电网络、配电网络和变电站的具体脆弱性模型。回顾分为三个主要部分：损害评估、脆弱性曲线以及气候变化适应建议。第一部分提供了过去事件的综合审查、其原因及故障模式。第二部分回顾了分析性和经验性脆弱性模型，强调了对复合和非复合危害进一步研究的需求，特别是风暴、洪水、雷击和野火。最后，第三部分在气候变化背景下审视了风险缓解和适应策略。该回顾旨在提高对增强气候变化情况下电力网格资产韧性的方法的理解。这些见解对于包括风险分析师和政策制定者在内的各个利益相关者来说非常有价值，他们参与风险建模和发展适应策略。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The resilience of electric power grids is threatened by natural hazards. Climate-related hazards are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Statistical analyses clearly demonstrate a rise in the number of incidents (power failures) and their consequences in recent years. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to understand and quantify the resilience of the infrastructure to external stressors, which is essential for developing efficient climate change adaptation strategies. To accomplish this, robust fragility and other vulnerability models are necessary. These models are employed to assess the level of asset damage and to quantify losses for given hazard intensity measures. In this context, a comprehensive literature review is carried out to shed light on existing fragility models specific to the transmission network, distribution network, and substations. The review is organized into three main sections: damage assessment, fragility curves, and recommendations for climate change adaptation. The first section provides a comprehensive review of past incidents, their causes, and failure modes. The second section reviews analytical and empirical fragility models, emphasizing the need for further research on compound and non-compound hazards, especially windstorms, floods, lightning, and wildfires. Finally, the third section examines risk mitigation and adaptation strategies in the context of climate change. This review aims to improve the understanding of approaches to enhance the resilience of power grid assets in the face of climate change. These insights are valuable to various stakeholders, including risk analysts and policymakers, who are involved in risk modeling and developing adaptation strategies.