标题： 巴西可持续发展中的技能与空间错配 显示英文标题

标题： Skill and spatial mismatches for sustainable development in Brazil

摘要： 所有国家在向更环保的经济转型过程中都需要进行结构性变革，但这种转型对工人可能产生哪些影响呢？ 研究表明，绿色转型情景总体上会导致净新增就业数量增加，但很少深入探讨劳动力市场的更细微动态。 本文结合了动态劳动力市场模拟模型与专注于农业和绿色制造业的发展情景。 我们研究了，在绿色转型背景下，不同部门和地区因环境影响差异而产生的生产力变化，可能会如何影响并受到巴西劳动力市场的影响和制约。 通过考虑与技能和空间错配相关的劳动力市场摩擦，我们发现，如果管理不当，生产力冲击可能会加剧不平等现象。 农业工人往往受到最严重的负面影响，因为他们职业和地理上的流动性较低。 我们的研究结果突显了有针对性的劳动力市场政策的重要性，以确保绿色转型公平且公正。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Structural change is necessary for all countries transitioning to a more environmentally sustainable economy, but what are the likely impacts on workers? Studies often find that green transition scenarios result in net positive job creation numbers overall but rarely provide insights into the more granular dynamics of the labour market. This paper combines a dynamic labour market simulation model with development scenarios focused on agriculture and green manufacturing. We study how, within the context of a green transition, productivity shifts in different sectors and regions, with differing environmental impacts, may affect and be constrained by the labour market in Brazil. By accounting for labour market frictions associated with skill and spatial mismatches, we find that productivity shocks, if not well managed, can exacerbate inequality. Agricultural workers tend to be the most negatively affected as they are less occupationally and geographically mobile. Our results highlight the importance of well-targeted labour market policies to ensure the green transition is just and equitable.