标题： 揭示洪水适应中的差异以实现公平的未来干预 显示英文标题

标题： Exposing Disparities in Flood Adaptation for Equitable Future Interventions

摘要： 随着政府竞相实施新的气候适应政策，以应对更频繁的洪水，他们必须寻求对所有社区都有效的政策，并维护气候正义。 这需要不仅根据政策的整体效果，还要根据其利益是否在所有社区中得到体现来进行评估。 我们使用FEMA国家洪水保险计划的社区评级系统及其包含$\sim$250万份洪水保险索赔的数据集，来说明在洪水适应中考虑这种差异的重要性。 我们使用${\rm C{\scriptsize AUSAL}F{\scriptsize LOW}}$，一种基于深度生成模型的因果推断方法，根据社区的收入、多样性、人口、洪水风险、教育水平和降水量来估计洪水适应干预措施的效果。 我们发现，该计划每个家庭可节省5000至15000美元。 然而，这些节省并未在各社区中平均分配。 例如，在低收入社区，当洪水风险增加时，节省金额急剧下降，而高收入社区则没有这种现象，其他条件相同。 即使在低收入社区内部，以白人为主的社区和非白人为主的社区之间也存在节省差距：以白人为主的社区每个家庭的节省金额可能高出6000多美元。 随着全球各地社区加大努力减少洪水造成的损失，仅仅规定一系列洪水适应措施是不够的。 这些项目必须为社区提供必要的技术和经济支持，以弥补历史上被剥夺权利、种族主义和不平等的模式。 未来的洪水适应工作应超越总体上减少损失的目标，旨在缩小现有差距，公平地支持社区在气候适应竞赛中取得进展。 显示英文摘要

摘要： As governments race to implement new climate adaptation policies that prepare for more frequent flooding, they must seek policies that are effective for all communities and uphold climate justice. This requires evaluating policies not only on their overall effectiveness but also on whether their benefits are felt across all communities. We illustrate the importance of considering such disparities for flood adaptation using the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program Community Rating System and its dataset of $\sim$2.5 million flood insurance claims. We use ${\rm C{\scriptsize AUSAL}F{\scriptsize LOW}}$, a causal inference method based on deep generative models, to estimate the treatment effect of flood adaptation interventions based on a community's income, diversity, population, flood risk, educational attainment, and precipitation. We find that the program saves communities \$5,000--15,000 per household. However, these savings are not evenly spread across communities. For example, for low-income communities savings sharply decline as flood-risk increases in contrast to their high-income counterparts with all else equal. Even among low-income communities, there is a gap in savings between predominantly white and non-white communities: savings of predominantly white communities can be higher by more than \$6000 per household. As communities worldwide ramp up efforts to reduce losses inflicted by floods, simply prescribing a series flood adaptation measures is not enough. Programs must provide communities with the necessary technical and economic support to compensate for historical patterns of disenfranchisement, racism, and inequality. Future flood adaptation efforts should go beyond reducing losses overall and aim to close existing gaps to equitably support communities in the race for climate adaptation.