标题： 语言研究的统计方法：基础概念——第二部分 显示英文标题

标题： Statistical methods for linguistic research: Foundational Ideas - Part II

摘要： 我们提供了贝叶斯数据分析方法的入门级综述，重点介绍了这些方法在语言学、心理学、心理语言学以及认知科学中的应用。 注重实证研究的研究者将会从将贝叶斯方法纳入其统计工具箱中受益匪浅，因为这种方法具有许多优势，其中包括相对于研究假设更容易解释结果，以及灵活的模型设定能力。 我们通过一个典型的心理语言学实验的数据线性混合模型分析为例，非正式地介绍了贝叶斯数据分析背后的基本思想。 我们讨论了使用贝叶斯因子进行假设检验以及利用交叉验证进行模型选择。 最后，我们以一些例子来展示贝叶斯框架下模型设定的灵活性。 还提供了一些进一步阅读的建议。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We provide an introductory review of Bayesian data analytical methods, with a focus on applications for linguistics, psychology, psycholinguistics, and cognitive science. The empirically oriented researcher will benefit from making Bayesian methods part of their statistical toolkit due to the many advantages of this framework, among them easier interpretation of results relative to research hypotheses, and flexible model specification. We present an informal introduction to the foundational ideas behind Bayesian data analysis, using, as an example, a linear mixed models analysis of data from a typical psycholinguistics experiment. We discuss hypothesis testing using the Bayes factor, and model selection using cross-validation. We close with some examples illustrating the flexibility of model specification in the Bayesian framework. Suggestions for further reading are also provided.