标题： 一种在临床试验中贝叶斯样本量确定的方法 显示英文标题

标题： On an Approach to Bayesian Sample Sizing in Clinical Trials

摘要： 本文探讨了在临床试验中贝叶斯样本量确定的方法。 该方法属于通常称为"适当贝叶斯"的类别，因为它不将频率学派概念与贝叶斯概念混合在一起。 根据后验概率定义了一个"成功试验"的标准，其概率通过数据的边缘分布进行评估，此概率是选择样本量的基础。 我们以临床试验中的一个标准问题为例，即证明一种新药优于对照组。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper explores an approach to Bayesian sample size determination in clinical trials. The approach falls into the category of what is often called "proper Bayesian", in that it does not mix frequentist concepts with Bayesian ones. A criterion for a "successful trial" is defined in terms of a posterior probability, its probability is assessed using the marginal distribution of the data, and this probability forms the basis for choosing sample sizes. We illustrate with a standard problem in clinical trials, that of establishing superiority of a new drug over a control.