标题： 确定最优顺序决策 显示英文标题

标题： Identifying Optimal Sequential Decisions

摘要： 我们考虑允许从给定的数据情况中找到顺序决策的最优策略的条件。 对于所有干预都是无条件的（原子的）情况，可识别性已由Pearl & Robins（1995）讨论过。 我们在这里认为，最优策略必须是条件性的，即在每个决策点考虑可用的信息。 我们表明，最优顺序决策策略的识别更为严格，在这种情况下，当原子干预可以识别时，条件干预可能并不总是可以识别。 我们进一步证明，可以给出一个简单的图形准则来判断最优策略的可识别性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We consider conditions that allow us to find an optimal strategy for sequential decisions from a given data situation. For the case where all interventions are unconditional (atomic), identifiability has been discussed by Pearl & Robins (1995). We argue here that an optimal strategy must be conditional, i.e. take the information available at each decision point into account. We show that the identification of an optimal sequential decision strategy is more restrictive, in the sense that conditional interventions might not always be identified when atomic interventions are. We further demonstrate that a simple graphical criterion for the identifiability of an optimal strategy can be given.