标题： 投注市场是否比民意调查更能预测政治选举？ 显示英文标题

标题： Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?

摘要： 政治选举是构成美国社会结构最重要的方面之一。 在最近的历史中，典型的民意调查估计在预测选举结果方面普遍缺乏精确性，这不仅给美国选民带来了不确定性，也影响了竞选策略、支出和筹款努力。 传统民意调查的一个引人注目的方面是所提出的问题类型——这些问题主要集中在询问个人打算投票给谁。 然而，它们并不总是探查选民认为谁会获胜——无论他们希望谁获胜。 相比之下，在线投注市场允许个人下注他们预期会获胜的人，这可能以特别显著的方式捕捉到个人认为谁会获胜。 目前的研究使用了描述性和预测性分析，以确定来自全球最大的在线投注市场Polymarket的数据是否提供了与传统总统民意调查不同的见解。 总体而言，研究结果表明，Polymarket在预测2024年总统选举的结果方面优于民意调查，尤其是在摇摆州。 结果与“群体智慧”理论的研究一致，该理论表明，大量人群在预测结果方面通常是准确的，即使他们不一定是专家或与相关问题密切关联。 总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，像Polymarket这样的投注市场可以用于预测总统选举和其他现实事件。 然而，需要进一步的研究来充分揭示和理解当前研究的有趣结果，包括与群体智慧理论的一致性以及对其他事件的适用性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Political elections are one of the most significant aspects of what constitutes the fabric of the United States. In recent history, typical polling estimates have largely lacked precision in predicting election outcomes, which has not only caused uncertainty for American voters, but has also impacted campaign strategies, spending, and fundraising efforts. One intriguing aspect of traditional polling is the types of questions that are asked -- the questions largely focus on asking individuals who they intend to vote for. However, they don't always probe who voters think will win -- regardless of who they want to win. In contrast, online betting markets allow individuals to wager money on who they expect to win, which may capture who individuals think will win in an especially salient manner. The current study used both descriptive and predictive analytics to determine whether data from Polymarket, the world's largest online betting market, provided insights that differed from traditional presidential polling. Overall, findings suggest that Polymarket was superior to polling in predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, particularly in swing states. Results are in alignment with research on ''Wisdom of Crowds'' theory, which suggests a large group of people are often accurate in predicting outcomes, even if they are not necessarily experts or closely aligned with the issue at hand. Overall, our results suggest that betting markets, such as Polymarket, could be employed to predict presidential elections and/or other real-world events. However, future investigations are needed to fully unpack and understand the current study's intriguing results, including alignment with Wisdom of Crowds theory and portability to other events.