标题： 预测与多保真度仿真器输出的计算机模型校准 显示英文标题

标题： Prediction and Computer Model Calibration Using Outputs From Multi-fidelity Simulators

摘要： 计算机代码被广泛用于代替物理观测来描述物理过程。在某些情况下，可以使用多个具有不同保真度的确定性多保真计算机模拟器来进行物理系统的探索。在本工作中，我们将现场观测和来自确定性多保真计算机模拟器的模型运行结合起来，以构建真实过程的预测模型。由此产生的模型可用于对系统进行敏感性分析、解决逆问题和进行预测。我们的方法是贝叶斯方法，并将通过一个简单示例以及密歇根大学辐射激波流体力学中心在预测科学中的一个实际应用来说明。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Computer codes are widely used to describe physical processes in lieu of physical observations. In some cases, more than one computer simulator, each with different degrees of fidelity, can be used to explore the physical system. In this work, we combine field observations and model runs from deterministic multi-fidelity computer simulators to build a predictive model for the real process. The resulting model can be used to perform sensitivity analysis for the system, solve inverse problems and make predictions. Our approach is Bayesian and will be illustrated through a simple example, as well as a real application in predictive science at the Center for Radiative Shock Hydrodynamics at the University of Michigan.