标题： 贝叶斯天文学：回顾过去，展望未来 显示英文标题

标题： Bayesian astrostatistics: a backward look to the future

摘要： 这一视角性章节简要回顾了以下内容：(1) 天文学中贝叶斯方法使用的历史增长；(2) 当前阻碍天文学家更广泛采用贝叶斯方法的关于频率论和贝叶斯统计推断的误解；以及 (3) 多层（分层）贝叶斯建模作为贝叶斯天体统计学未来研究的主要方向，部分体现在第一届国际统计学会（ISI）邀请的天文学统计专题研讨会上的报告中，并记录在本卷中。 最后，文章以一种故意引发争议的建议结束，这一建议源于对宇宙群体建模的多层贝叶斯视角：天文学家应停止从巡天数据中生成估计流量和其他源属性的目录。相反，应该报告源属性的似然函数（或边缘似然函数）的摘要（而不是后验概率密度函数），包括对于未通过传统检测阈值的候选对象的非平凡摘要（不仅仅是上限）。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This perspective chapter briefly surveys: (1) past growth in the use of Bayesian methods in astrophysics; (2) current misconceptions about both frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference that hinder wider adoption of Bayesian methods by astronomers; and (3) multilevel (hierarchical) Bayesian modeling as a major future direction for research in Bayesian astrostatistics, exemplified in part by presentations at the first ISI invited session on astrostatistics, commemorated in this volume. It closes with an intentionally provocative recommendation for astronomical survey data reporting, motivated by the multilevel Bayesian perspective on modeling cosmic populations: that astronomers cease producing catalogs of estimated fluxes and other source properties from surveys. Instead, summaries of likelihood functions (or marginal likelihood functions) for source properties should be reported (not posterior probability density functions), including nontrivial summaries (not simply upper limits) for candidate objects that do not pass traditional detection thresholds.