标题： ACME：风力涡轮机鸟类和蝙蝠死亡的 partially 周期性估算器 显示英文标题

标题： ACME: A Partially Periodic Estimator of Avian & Chiropteran Mortality at Wind Turbines

摘要： 基于周期性尸体计数估计风力涡轮机附近鸟类和蝙蝠的死亡率是一项挑战，因为尸体可能会被食腐动物移走或在调查员的搜索中被遗漏，从而导致计数不足。 现有的旨在纠正此问题的死亡率估算器在搜索间隔较短时会提供截然不同的估计值。 我们引入了一种新的估算器，它包含了许多现有估算器作为特殊情况，但在三个方面扩展并改进了它们，以反映在野外发现的现象： * 食腐动物对尸体的清除率随着尸体年龄的增长而降低； * 技术人员在发现年老尸体方面的熟练度逐渐下降； * 在早期搜索期间到达的一些（但不是全部）尸体可能在当前搜索期被发现。 正是这一特性使新估算器成为“部分周期性”估算器。 为死亡率提供了点估计以及 50% 和 90% 的目标贝叶斯区间估计。 新的 ACME 死亡率估算器将显著提高风力涡轮机附近鸟类和蝙蝠死亡率估计的准确性和可信度。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Estimating the mortality of birds and bats at wind turbines based on periodic carcass counts is challenging because carcasses may be removed by scavengers or may be missed in investigators' searches, leading to undercounting. Existing mortality estimators intended to correct for this offer wildly different estimates when search intervals are short. We introduce a new estimator that includes many existing ones as special cases but extends and improves them in three ways to reflect phenomena discovered in the field: * Decreasing removal rate by scavengers as carcasses age; * Diminishing proficiency of Field Technicians in discovering carcasses as they age; * Possibility that some (but not all) carcasses arriving in earlier search periods may be discovered in the current period. It is this feature that makes the new estimator "partially periodic". Both point estimates and 50% and 90% Objective Bayes interval estimates are provided for mortality. The new ACME mortality estimator will significantly improve the accuracy and credibility of mortality estimates for birds and bats near wind turbines.