标题： 中国运输政策有效吗？ 直接污染回弹效应的新视角及公路运输部门的实证证据 显示英文标题

标题： Are Chinese transport policies effective? A new perspective from direct pollution rebound effect, and empirical evidence from road transport sector

摘要： 空气污染已成为中国的一个严峻挑战。 机动车的排放已被发现是空气污染的主要来源之一。 尽管中国政府已采取了许多政策来减少道路交通部门的有害排放，但政策制定者和研究人员仍然不确定这些政策在短期和长期内的有效性程度。 受当前关于能源反弹效应（ERE）文献中的概念和实证结果的启发，我们首先提出了一个污染反弹效应（PRE）的新概念。 然后，我们基于1986年至2014年期间的时间序列数据，估计直接空气PRE，作为衡量减少交通部门空气污染政策有效性的指标。 我们发现，短期直接空气PRE为-1.4105，相应的长期PRE为-1.246。 负的结果表明，在1986年至2014年期间，无论是短期还是长期，中国道路客运部门中都不存在直接空气PRE。 这意味着中国的交通政策在减少交通部门有害排放方面是有效的。 据我们所知，这项研究是首次尝试量化转型期中国交通政策的有效性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The air pollution has become a serious challenge in China. Emissions from motor vehicles have been found as one main source of air pollution. Although the Chinese government has taken numerous policies to mitigate the harmful emissions from road transport sector, it is still uncertain for both policy makers and researchers to know to what extent the policies are effective in the short and long terms. Inspired by the concept and empirical results from current literature on energy rebound effect (ERE), we first propose a new concept of pollution rebound effect (PRE). Then, we estimate direct air PRE as a measure for the effectiveness of the policies of reducing air pollution from transport sector based on time-series data from the period 1986-2014. We find that the short-term direct air PRE is -1.4105, and the corresponding long-run PRE is -1.246. The negative results indicate that the direct air PRE does not exist in road passenger transport sector in China, either in the short term or in the long term during the period 1986-2014. This implies that the Chinese transport policies are effective in terms of harmful emissions reduction in the transport sector. This research, to the best of our knowledge, is the first attempt to quantify the effectiveness of the transport policies in the transitional China.