标题： 比较应用于足球的概率预测模型 显示英文标题

标题： Comparing probabilistic predictive models applied to football

摘要： 我们提出了两种贝叶斯多项式-Dirichlet模型来预测足球（英式橄榄球）比赛的最终结果，并将其与三个著名模型在预测能力方面进行了比较。 所有模型都预测了巴西足球甲级联赛1710场比赛的全场结果，比较使用了三种适当的评分规则、错误率比例和校准评估。 我们还提供了一个拟合优度度量。 我们的结果显示，多项式-Dirichlet模型不仅在标准方法上具有竞争力，而且它们也很好地校准并且具有合理的拟合优度。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We propose two Bayesian multinomial-Dirichlet models to predict the final outcome of football (soccer) matches and compare them to three well-known models regarding their predictive power. All the models predicted the full-time results of 1710 matches of the first division of the Brazilian football championship and the comparison used three proper scoring rules, the proportion of errors and a calibration assessment. We also provide a goodness of fit measure. Our results show that multinomial-Dirichlet models are not only competitive with standard approaches, but they are also well calibrated and present reasonable goodness of fit.