标题： 最优通胀目标：基于主体模型的见解 显示英文标题

标题： Optimal Inflation Target: Insights from an Agent-Based Model

摘要： 中央银行应该以何种通胀水平为目标？ 我们在一个简化的基于主体的经济模型背景下探讨了这一问题。根据描述代理行为的参数值（尤其是通货膨胀预期），我们发现宏观经济层面呈现出丰富的行为模式。在没有积极货币政策的情况下，我们的基于主体的经济模型可能会处于高通胀/高产出状态，或者低通胀/低产出状态。此外，还发现了超级通货膨胀、通货紧缩以及共存状态之间的“商业周期”。 然后，我们引入了一个以泰勒规则为基础设定通胀目标的中央银行，并研究由此产生的总体变量。我们的主要结论是，过低的通胀目标通常会对中央银行监管的经济产生不利影响。一种表现是通胀持续未能达到目标，这可能类似于当前的宏观经济状况。较高的通胀目标被发现能够改善失业和负利率时期的情况。我们将结果与标准动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型的预测进行了比较。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Which level of inflation should Central Banks be targeting? We investigate this issue in the context of a simplified Agent Based Model of the economy. Depending on the value of the parameters that describe the behaviour of agents (in particular inflation anticipations), we find a rich variety of behaviour at the macro-level. Without any active monetary policy, our ABM economy can be in a high inflation/high output state, or in a low inflation/low output state. Hyper-inflation, deflation and "business cycles" between coexisting states are also found. We then introduce a Central Bank with a Taylor rule-based inflation target, and study the resulting aggregate variables. Our main result is that too-low inflation targets are in general detrimental to a CB-monitored economy. One symptom is a persistent under-realisation of inflation, perhaps similar to the current macroeconomic situation. Higher inflation targets are found to improve both unemployment and negative interest rate episodes. Our results are compared with the predictions of the standard DSGE model.