标题： 极端值分析城市天际线 显示英文标题

标题： An Extreme Value Analysis of the Urban Skyline

摘要： 到2050年，世界城市人口预计将增长50%，超过60亿人。 城市面临的主要挑战，如可持续性、安全性和公平性，将取决于为容纳人口增长而建设的基础设施。 城市规划者长期以来一直在争论垂直增长（通过建造高层建筑集中居民）与水平增长（通过扩展城市边界分散居民）的后果。 然而，如果当前趋势持续，相对较少的研究已经对城市的垂直增长进行了建模，并量化了这些后果的可能性和紧迫性。 我们将高层建筑视为超过阈值的随机超出情况，并使用极值分析来描述如果当前趋势持续，2050年将主导城市天际线的摩天大楼。 我们发现，将有四万一千座摩天大楼超过150米和40层，每年增长8%，远超预计的每年2%的城市人口增长。 典型的高层摩天大楼不会明显更高，最高的可能超过1000米但不到一英里。 如果建造一英里高的摩天大楼，我们预测它将容纳的居住者数量会比许多目前设计的一英里高摩天大楼少。 我们预测其楼层数大约是 Mile-High Tower 的四分之三，Next Tokyo 的 Sky Mile Tower 的三分之二，以及弗兰克·洛伊·莱特的 The Illinois 的一半，这三项是一英里高摩天大楼愿景中的著名方案。 然而，我们预计楼层数与高度之间的关系在不同城市之间会有很大差异。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The world's urban population is expected to grow fifty percent by the year 2050 and exceed six billion. The major challenges confronting cities, such as sustainability, safety, and equality, will depend on the infrastructure developed to accommodate the increase. Urban planners have long debated the consequences of vertical growth, the concentration of residents by constructing tall buildings, over horizontal growth, the dispersal of residents by expanding urban boundaries. Yet relatively little work has modeled the vertical growth of cities if present trends continue and quantified the likelihood and therefore urgency of these consequences. We regard tall buildings as random exceedances over a threshold and use extreme value analysis to characterize the skyscrapers that will dominate the urban skyline in 2050 if present trends continue. We find forty-one thousand skyscrapers will surpass 150 meters and 40 floors, an increase of eight percent a year, far outpacing the expected urban population growth of two percent a year. The typical tall skyscraper will not be noticeably taller, and the tallest will likely exceed one thousand meters but not one mile. If a mile-high skyscraper is constructed, we predict it will hold fewer occupants than many mile-highs currently designed. We predict roughly three-quarters the number of floors of the Mile-High Tower, two-thirds of Next Tokyo's Sky Mile Tower, and half the floors of Frank Lloyd Wright's The Illinois, three prominent plans of the mile-high skyscraper vision. However, we anticipate the relationship between floor and height will vary considerably across cities.