标题： 北欧电力系统中供暖电气化和天气风险的增加 显示英文标题

标题： Increased Electrification of Heating and Weather Risk in the Nordic Power System

摘要： 天气是电力需求和供应的主要驱动因素之一，尤其是在北欧地区，该地区具有高供暖需求和高可再生能源份额。 此外，雄心勃勃的去碳化计划可能导致电力在北欧地区取代化石燃料用于供暖，同时预计会有大规模的风电扩展，从而导致对天气风险的更大暴露。 在本研究中，我们量化了在北欧地区将化石燃料替换为电力用于供暖所带来的天气风险增加，同时可再生能源发电的波动性也在扩大。 首先，我们为挪威、瑞典、丹麦和芬兰四个国家校准了统计天气驱动的电力消费模型。 然后，我们修改了模型的天气敏感性，以模拟不同水平的供暖电气化，并使用300个模拟的天气年份来研究不同天气条件在每个电气化水平下对电力消费的影响。 结果表明，在2040年全面用电力替代化石燃料用于供暖的情况下，与平均天气年份下的业务常态情景相比，年度消耗量增加了155太瓦时（30%），而在每二十年一次的天气年份中则增加了178太瓦时（34%）。 然而，峰值消耗的增加更大：在正常天气年份中约为50%，在每二十年一次的天气年份中则为70%。 此外，在消耗高峰期间，风能和太阳能发电的贡献很少。 由于供暖电气化带来的天气敏感性增加，导致总负荷增加，但也导致年度间、季节性和季节内变化显著增加。 我们得出结论，供暖电气化必须伴随着电力系统灵活性的提高，以确保电力供应的稳定和安全。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Weather is one of the main drivers of both the power demand and supply, especially in the Nordic region which is characterized by high heating needs and a high share of renewable energy. Furthermore, ambitious decarbonization plans may cause power to replace fossil fuels for heating in the Nordic region, at the same time as large wind power expansions are expected, resulting in even greater exposure to weather risk. In this study, we quantify the increase in weather risk resulting from replacing fossil fuels with power for heating in the Nordic region, at the same time as variable renewable generation expands. First, we calibrate statistical weather-driven power consumption models for each of the countries Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland. Then, we modify the weather sensitivity of the models to simulate different levels of heating electrification, and use 300 simulated weather years to investigate how differing weather conditions impact power consumption at each electrification level. The results show that full replacement of fossil fuels by power for heating in 2040 leads to an increase in annual consumption of 155 TWh (30%) compared to a business-as-usual scenario during an average weather year, but a 178 TWh (34%) increase during a one-in-twenty weather year. However, the increase in the peak consumption is greater: around 50% for a normal weather year, and 70% for a one-in-twenty weather year. Furthermore, wind and solar generation contribute little during the consumption peaks. The increased weather sensitivity caused by heating electrification causes greater total load, but also causes a significant increase in inter-annual, seasonal, and intra-seasonal variations. We conclude that heating electrification must be accompanied by an increase in power system flexibility to ensure a stable and secure power supply.