标题： 利用西班牙省份的官方数据衡量香烟销售异常：跨国烟草公司 (TTCs) 使用的空烟盒调查 (EPS) 所检测到的异常是否只是唯一的异常？ 显示英文标题

标题： Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales by using official data from Spanish provinces: Are there only the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPS) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs)?

摘要： 有文献质疑跨国烟草公司 (TTC) 委托开展的用于衡量非法烟草贸易的研究的真实性。此外，还有研究表明，TTC 要求进行的空烟盒调查 (EPS) 存在规模过大的问题。本研究的新颖之处在于，除了检测 EPS 中分析的异常情况外，在某些省份的香烟销量高于合理值，而这一点是 TTC 所忽视的。 本研究同时分析了以下两个方面：首先，检查西班牙 47 个省份中的每个省份是否完成了 EPS；其次，测量那些销量超出预期值的省份所观察到的异常情况。为了实现本文的目标，使用了省级的香烟销售量、价格和人均 GDP 数据。 这些数据通过广泛应用于检测其他领域异常现象的机器学习技术进行建模。结果显示，在观察到销量低于合理值的省份（由 EPS 检测到）呈现出明显的地理分布模式。此外，正如先前文献所述，西班牙的 EPS 提供的数据略显过大。最后，在与他国接壤或具有高旅游影响力的地区，观察到的销量高于预期值。 显示英文摘要

摘要： There is literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by the transnational tobacco companies (TTC) to measure the illicit tobacco trade. Furthermore, there are studies that indicate that the Empty Pack Surveys (EPS) ordered by the TTCs are oversized. The novelty of this study is that, in addition to detecting the anomalies analyzed in the EPSs, there are provinces in which cigarette sales are higher than reasonable values, something that the TTCs ignore. This study analyzed simultaneously, firstly, if the EPSs established in each of the 47 Spanish provinces were fulfilled. Second, anomalies observed in provinces where sales exceed expected values are measured. To achieve the objective of the paper, provincial data on cigarette sales, price and GDP per capita are used. These data are modeled with machine learning techniques widely used to detect anomalies in other areas. The results reveal that the provinces in which sales below reasonable values are observed (as detected by the EPSs) present a clear geographical pattern. Furthermore, the values provided by the EPSs in Spain, as indicated in the previous literature, are slightly oversized. Finally, there are regions bordering other countries or with a high tourist influence in which the observed sales are higher than the expected values.