标题： 巴黎气候目标的成本与收益 显示英文标题

标题： Costs and Benefits of the Paris Climate Targets

摘要： 在巴黎协定中设定的温度目标，如果不迅速减少温室气体排放并从大气中去除二氧化碳，就无法实现。 后者需要大量可能过于庞大的补贴。 气候政策成本的中央估计值，不切实际地假设了最低成本的实施方式，为2100年GDP的3.8-5.6%。 气候政策收益的中央估计值，不切实际地假设了脆弱性不变，为2100年GDP的2.8-3.2%。 对收益的不确定性大于对成本的不确定性。 除非风险规避程度高且贴现率低，否则巴黎目标无法通过成本效益测试。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The temperature targets in the Paris Agreement cannot be met without very rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The latter requires large, perhaps prohibitively large subsidies. The central estimate of the costs of climate policy, unrealistically assuming least-cost implementation, is 3.8-5.6\% of GDP in 2100. The central estimate of the benefits of climate policy, unrealistically assuming constant vulnerability, is 2.8-3.2\% of GDP. The uncertainty about the benefits is larger than the uncertainty about the costs. The Paris targets do not pass the cost-benefit test unless risk aversion is high and discount rate low.