标题： 非高斯似然在Ia型超新星宇宙学中的应用：暗能量及$H_0$的启示 显示英文标题

标题： Non-Gaussian Likelihoods for Type Ia Supernovae Cosmology: Implications for Dark Energy and $H_0$

摘要： Ia型超新星目录的规模和校准最新改进使我们能够通过其对宇宙膨胀历史的影响来限制暗能量的具体性质和演化。 我们展示了对Pantheon+ Ia型超新星目录进行贝叶斯宇宙学模型比较的结果，在这些结果中，平坦的$\Lambda$冷暗物质模型被数据优先选择，且我们发现有中等强度的证据（$\Delta \log \mathcal{Z} \sim 2.5$）拒绝了一些其他的暗能量模型。 我们分析了异常速度修正对模型比较的影响，结果显示去除异常速度修正会导致非$\Lambda$冷暗物质参数拟合的变化。 除了比较宇宙学模型外，贝叶斯方法还扩展到比较数据的散射模型，测试Pantheon+哈勃残差中的非高斯性。 我们发现，在Pantheon+协方差中加入一个尺度参数，或者交替使用多元学生的t分布，比基准分析更好地拟合数据，分别产生1$\Delta \log \mathcal{Z} = 2.29 $和1$2.46$的宇宙学独立证据增加。 这种改进的散射处理减少了对哈勃常数约束的不确定性，得到的结果为 $H_0 = 73.67 \pm 0.99 $ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$，与 Planck 的结果存在 $ 5.7 \sigma$ 张力。 我们还探讨了 $M_B$ 转型模型作为解决哈勃张力的潜在解决方案，但在超新星数据中没有发现支持这些模型的证据。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The latest improvements in the scale and calibration of Type Ia supernovae catalogues allow us to constrain the specific nature and evolution of dark energy through its effect on the expansion history of the universe. We present the results of Bayesian cosmological model comparison on the SNe~Ia catalogue Pantheon+, where Flat $\Lambda$CDM is preferred by the data over all other models and we find moderate evidence ($\Delta \log \mathcal{Z} \sim 2.5$) to reject a number of the alternate dark energy models. The effect of peculiar velocity corrections on model comparison is analysed, where we show that removing the peculiar velocity corrections results in a varying fit on non-$\Lambda$CDM parameters. As well as comparing cosmological models, the Bayesian methodology is extended to comparing the scatter model of the data, testing for non-gaussianity in the Pantheon+ Hubble residuals. We find that adding a scale parameter to the Pantheon+ covariances, or alternately using a multivariate Student's t-distribution fits the data better than the fiducial analysis, producing a cosmology independent evidence increase of $\Delta \log \mathcal{Z} = 2.29 $ and $2.46$ respectively. This improved treatment of the scatter decreases the uncertainty in the constraint on the Hubble constant, finding $H_0 = 73.67 \pm 0.99 $ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, in $ 5.7 \sigma$ tension with Planck. We also explore $M_B$ transition models as a potential solution for the Hubble tension, finding no evidence to support these models among the SNe data.