标题： 新冠疫情与大衰退期间美国铁路和多式联运货物的响应程度如何？ 显示英文标题

标题： How Well Did U.S. Rail and Intermodal Freight Respond to the COVID-19 Pandemic vs. the Great Recession?

摘要： 本文分析并比较了2007-2009年大衰退和2020年新冠疫情对美国国内铁路货运量模式的影响以及之后的恢复情况。铁路和多式联运运输数据的趋势与经济指标一起被研究，重点是各种商品和多式联运货运量下降和恢复的程度，以及相对于经济驱动因素的领先/滞后时间。 虽然大衰退的影响和复苏发展缓慢，但新冠疫情既造成了货运市场的深远干扰，也带来了快速反弹，不同商品类型表现出重要的差异。与能源相关的商品（即煤炭、石油和水力压裂砂）在疫情期间下降，而其他商品（即谷物产品、木材和多式联运货物）的需求迅速反弹，在某些情况下甚至增长。 总体而言，铁路货运在2020年3月和4月交通急剧下降后迅速反弹，在五个月内实现了接近全面恢复。随着2020年恢复的进行，多式联运流量、通过铁路运输最长陆路行程的集装箱强劲反弹，一些甚至超过了2019年的水平。相比之下，大衰退期间的铁路流量变化缓慢，从开始到恢复持续多年。 疫情应对反映了快速关闭和消费者购买模式快速转变的影响。疫情的结果展示了美国铁路货运行业的韧性及其在整体物流系统中扮演的多重角色。在具有挑战性的物流环境中，当其他运输方式受到限制时，货运铁路仍能保持货物的流通。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper analyzes and compares patterns of U.S. domestic rail freight volumes during, and after the disruptions caused by the 2007-2009 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Trends in rail and intermodal shipment data are examined in conjunction with economic indicators, focusing on the extent of drop and recovery of freight volumes of various commodities and intermodal shipments, and the lead/lag time with respect to economic drivers. While impacts from and the rebound from the Great Recessions were slow to develop, COVID-19 produced both profound disruptions in the freight market and rapid rebound, with important variations across commodity types. Energy-related commodities (i.e., coal, petroleum, and fracking sand), dropped during the pandemic while demand for other commodities (i.e., grain products and lumber, and intermodal freight). rebounded rapidly and in some cases grew. Overall rail freight experienced a rapid rebound following the precipitous drop in traffic in March and April 2020, achieving a near-full recovery in five months. As the recovery proceeded through 2020, intermodal flow, containers moving by rail for their longest overland trips, rebounded strongly, some exceeding 2019 levels. In contrast, rail flows during the Great Recession changed slowly with the onset and recovery, extending over multiple years. Pandemic response reflected the impacts of quick shutdowns and a rapid shift in consumer purchasing patterns. Results for the pandemic illustrate the resilience of U.S. rail freight industry and the multifaceted role it plays in the overall logistics system. Amid a challenging logistical environment, freight rail kept goods moving when other methods of transport were constrained.