标题： 欧洲增强型地热系统市场整合途径 显示英文标题

标题： Market Integration Pathways for Enhanced Geothermal Systems in Europe

摘要： 增强型地热系统（EGS）可以提供持续、可靠的电力和热量，且排放极少，但高昂的钻井成本和不确定的成本降低使得其未来尚不明确。 我们探讨了在碳中和、多部门欧洲能源系统中EGS未来采用的情景。 我们发现，在净零系统中，以当前成本进行供热（联合）发电的EGS可以在欧洲支持20--30 GWth的装机容量，主要由区域供暖需求驱动。 当钻井成本下降约60%时，EGS在电力市场中变得具有竞争力，使其市场机会扩大一个数量级。 然而，区域供暖的分散部署与高地质潜力与其他可再生能源低潜力的有限重叠形成对比，这影响了发电型EGS的竞争力。 这导致了一个挑战，即大多数EGS市场潜力依赖于全欧洲范围内的技术学习以实现成本降低，强调协调在利益相关者减少EGS成本的努力中至关重要。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) can provide constant, reliable electricity and heat with minimal emissions, but high drilling costs and uncertain cost reductions leave their future unclear. We explore scenarios for the future adoption of EGS in a carbon-neutral, multi-sector European energy system. We find that in a net-zero system, heat (co-)generating EGS at current cost can support 20--30 GWth of capacity in Europe, primarily driven by district heating demands. When drilling costs decrease by approximately 60%, EGS becomes competitive in electricity markets, expanding its market opportunity by one order of magnitude. However, the spatially dispersed rollout of district heating contrasts with the confined overlap of high geological potential and low potential for other renewables, which conditions the competitiveness of electricity-generating EGS. This results in a challenge where the majority of EGS market potential depends on pan-European technology learning for cost reductions, emphasising coordination is crucial in stakeholders' efforts to reduce EGS cost.