标题： 地震断层跳跃的概率从物理准则出发 显示英文标题

标题： Probability of earthquake fault jumps from physics based criterion

摘要： 自然断层带中的几何复杂性，如台阶和空隙，在地震危险研究中构成挑战，因为它们可能成为地震破裂的障碍。 在本研究中，我们提出了一种准则，该准则基于速率-状态方程，用于估计地震破裂跳跃到两个空间上不相连断层的效率。 所提出的跳跃准则通过地震周期的二维准动态数值模拟进行了测试。 该准则成功预测了库仑应力变化未能预测的断层跳跃。 该准则将库仑应力变化作为参数，但也依赖于其他重要参数，其中包括破裂要跳跃到的断层上的绝对法向应力。 根据该准则，最大跳跃距离随着绝对法向应力的降低而增加，即当破裂过程更接近地表或孔隙压力增加时。 该准则表明，如果允许法向应力降至零，地震可以跳跃到无限远的距离。 因此，地表层的特性在允许的最大破裂跳跃距离方面至关重要。 绝对法向应力是主要控制参数，其次是地震滑动的不确定性，该不确定性控制着库仑应力对接收断层的影响。 最后，我们还提出了一种计算地震破裂跳跃概率的方法，该方法允许考虑两个断层之间几何配置的不确定性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Geometrical complexities in natural fault zones, such as steps and gaps, pose a challenge in seismic hazard studies as they can act as barriers to seismic ruptures. In this study, we propose a criterion, which is based on the rate-and-state equation, to estimate the efficiency of an earthquake rupture to jump two spatially disconnected faults. The proposed jump criterion is tested using a 2D quasi-dynamic numerical simulations of the seismic cycle. The criterion successfully predicts fault jumps where the coulomb stress change fails to do so. The criterion includes the coulomb stress change as a parameter but is also dependent on other important parameters among which the absolute normal stress on the fault which the rupture is to jump to. Based on the criterion, the maximum jump distance increases with decreasing absolute normal stress, i.e. as the rupture process occurs closer to the surface or as pore pressure increases. The criterion implies that an earthquake can jump to an infinite distance at the surface if the normal stress is allowed to go to zero. Thus, the properties of the surface layers are of the outmost importance in terms of maximum rupture jump distance allowed. The absolute normal stress is the main controlling parameter followed by the uncertainty on the slip of an earthquake, which controls the coulomb stress impact on the receiver fault. Finally, we also propose a method to compute probabilities of earthquakes rupture to jump, which allows to consider uncertainties in geometrical configurations between two faults.