标题： 用基于代理的模型分析零增长经济学的影响 显示英文标题

标题： Implications of zero-growth economics analysed with an agent-based model

摘要： 地球生物圈的极限日益临近，气候变化带来的潜在灾难性后果开始质疑经济无限增长的可能性。脱钩和后增长文献中对零经济增长前景的兴趣与日俱增。 特别是，在带有利息债务的资本主义体系中，是否存在一条零增长轨迹可以实现经济稳定性的问题浮现出来。 已经使用宏观经济模型对此问题给出了若干答案；一些发现零增长轨迹是稳定的，而另一些模型则显示经济崩溃。 然而，在增长时期，资本主义系统并不保证稳定。 因此，更合适的方法是在同一模型上比较增长和零增长情景之间的相对稳定性。 此类问题尚未在任何细分层面得到解答。 有必要调查零增长对市场份额不稳定性和集中度、破产率、收入分配以及信贷网络风险的影响。 为回答这些问题，我们开发了一个包含明斯基金融动态的宏观经济基于代理的模型。 通过改变模型中企业平均生产率增长率参数来实现增长和零增长情景。 模型结果显示，零增长情景下的实际GDP增长率更为稳定，经济危机较少，失业率较低，工人的产出工资份额较高，资本企业和银行的市场份额相对更加稳定。 零增长的一些后果包括：通胀率高于增长情景，企业和银行的市场集中度增加，信贷网络中的金融风险水平更高。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The ever-approaching limits of the Earth's biosphere and the potentially catastrophic consequences caused by climate change have begun to call into question the endless growth of the economy. There is increasing interest in the prospects of zero economic growth from the degrowth and post-growth literature. In particular, the question arises as to whether a zero-growth trajectory in a capitalist system with interest-bearing debt can be economically stable. There have been several answers to this question using macroeconomic models; some find a zero-growth trajectory is stable, while other models show an economic breakdown. However, the capitalist system in a period of growth is not guaranteed to be stable. Hence, a more appropriate methodology is to compare the relative stability between a growth and zero-growth scenario on the same model. Such a question has not yet been answered at any disaggregated level. It's important to investigate the consequences of zero-growth on market share instability and concentration, bankruptcy rates, income distribution, and credit network risk. To answer such questions, we develop a macroeconomic agent-based model incorporating Minskyan financial dynamics. The growth and zero-growth scenarios are accomplished by changing an average productivity growth parameter for the firms in the model. The model results showed that real GDP growth rates were more stable in the zero-growth scenario, there were fewer economic crises, lower unemployment rates, a higher wage share of output for workers, and capital firm and bank market shares were relatively more stable. Some of the consequences of zero-growth were a higher rate of inflation than in the growth scenario, increased market concentration for both firms and banks, and a higher level of financial risk in the credit network.