标题： 评估新冠疫情期间匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚和捷克共和国财政政策对家庭储蓄的有效性：一种马尔可夫转换VAR方法 显示英文标题

标题： Assessing Fiscal Policy Effectiveness on Household Savings in Hungary, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic during the COVID-19 Crisis: A Markov Switching VAR Approach

摘要： 新冠疫情对欧洲家庭消费、储蓄和收入造成了重大干扰，尤其对匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚和捷克共和国等国家影响更为显著。 本研究探讨了财政政策在缓解这些影响方面的有效性，重点关注政府干预措施，如支出、补贴、收入和债务。 利用马尔可夫切换向量自回归（MS-VAR）模型，研究分析了2000年至2023年的数据，考虑了三种经济状态：初始冲击、危机高峰期和复苏阶段。 结果表明，新冠疫情冲击导致三国的家庭消费和收入大幅下降，其中斯洛文尼亚面临最严重的即时影响。 然而，匈牙利表现出最强的恢复能力，这得益于有效的财政措施，如补贴和增加的政府支出，这些措施显著提升了家庭消费和收入。 捷克共和国则表现出更渐进的恢复，未来导向的消费（IMPC）有所改善。 总之，研究强调了有针对性的财政干预在缓解危机负面影响中的关键作用。 研究结果表明，政府应在经济低迷期间优先考虑及时且有针对性的财政政策，以支持家庭财务稳定并确保长期恢复。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted household consumption, savings, and income across Europe, particularly affecting countries like Hungary, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic. This study investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policies in mitigating these impacts, focusing on government interventions such as spending, subsidies, revenue, and debt. Utilizing a Markov Switching Vector Auto regression (MS-VAR) model, the study examines data from 2000 to 2023, considering three economic regimes: the initial shock, the peak crisis, and the recovery phase. The results indicate that the COVID-19 shock led to a sharp decline in household consumption and income in all three countries, with Slovenia facing the most severe immediate impact. Hungary, however, showed the strongest recovery, driven by effective fiscal measures such as subsidies and increased government spending, which significantly boosted both household consumption and income. The Czech Republic demonstrated a more gradual recovery, with improvements observed in future-oriented consumption (IMPC). In conclusion, the study underscores the critical role of targeted fiscal interventions in mitigating the adverse effects of crises. The findings suggest that governments should prioritize timely and targeted fiscal policies to support household financial stability during economic downturns and ensure long-term recovery.