标题： 强烈证据表明类地行星上的生命起源是一个快速过程 显示英文标题

标题： Strong Evidence That Abiogenesis Is a Rapid Process on Earth Analogs

摘要： 生命早期的开始天真地表明，地球生命起源（abiogenesis）在类地行星上是一个快速的过程。然而，如果进化通常需要大约40亿年才能产生像我们这样的智能生命形式，那么地球生物圈有限的寿命（约50亿至60亿年）就要求我们的出现有一个早期的（并且可能非常不典型的）开端——这是弱人择原理的一个例子。 我们之前提出的关于地球年代学的客观贝叶斯分析最终得出了一个公式，用于计算快速和慢速生命起源情景之间相对于地球寿命的最小几率比。 微化石的时间（37亿年前）提供了3:1的几率支持快速生命起源，而碳同位素的证据（41亿年前）给出了9:1的几率，两者都低于“强证据”的经典阈值（10:1）。 然而，最近LUCA（最后共同祖先）42亿年的结果首次将几率推过了这个门槛（名义上为13:1）。 事实上，对于生物圈最终寿命的所有可能值以及古代文明的推测性假设，几率比都大于10:1。 第一次，我们有正式的强证据支持这样一个假设，即生命在类似地球的条件下迅速出现（尽管这样的环境本身可能是稀有的）。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The early start to life naively suggests that abiogenesis is a rapid process on Earth-like planets. However, if evolution typically takes ~4Gyr to produce intelligent life-forms like us, then the limited lifespan of Earth's biosphere (~5-6Gyr) necessitates an early (and possibly highly atypical) start to our emergence - an example of the weak anthropic principle. Our previously proposed objective Bayesian analysis of Earth's chronology culminated in a formula for the minimum odds ratio between the fast and slow abiogenesis scenarios (relative to Earth's lifespan). Timing from microfossils (3.7Gya) yields 3:1 odds in favor of rapid abiogenesis, whereas evidence from carbon isotopes (4.1Gya) gives 9:1, both below the canonical threshold of "strong evidence" (10:1). However, the recent result of a 4.2Gya LUCA pushes the odds over the threshold for the first time (nominally 13:1). In fact, the odds ratio is >10:1 for all possible values of the biosphere's ultimate lifespan and speculative hypotheses of ancient civilizations. For the first time, we have formally strong evidence that favors the hypothesis that life rapidly emerges in Earth-like conditions (although such environments may themselves be rare).