标题： 大质量黑洞双源混淆对太极计划基于空间的引力波探测中参数估计不确定性的影响 显示英文标题

标题： Impact of Massive Black Hole Binaries Source Confusion on Uncertainties of Parameters Estimation in Space-based Gravitational Wave Detection for the TaiJi Mission

摘要： 我们系统地研究了源混淆对泰极空间引力波任务中大质量黑洞双星参数估计的影响。考虑了三种代表性MBHB群体模型，即PopIII、Q3d和Q3nod。通过进行高精度数值模拟，并采用费舍尔信息矩阵和马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛技术，我们定量评估了参数估计中的不确定性。源混淆主要源于多个信号的时间频率轨迹重叠。我们发现，当两个信号在探测器帧下的啁啾质量相对差异小于0.2%时，参数估计的不确定性显著增加。然而，通过将更高阶模式纳入波形模型，可以大大减轻这种退化。此外，使用完整的贝叶斯推理，我们展示了更高阶模式在减少参数恢复系统偏差方面的明显优势。这些结果为未来基于空间的引力波观测的数据分析策略提供了重要的指导。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We systematically investigates the impact of source confusion on parameter estimation for massive black hole binaries in the context of the Taiji space-based gravitational wave mission. Three representative MBHB population models, such as PopIII, Q3d, and Q3nod, are considered. By performing high-precision numerical simulations and employing both the Fisher information matrix and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we quantitatively assess the uncertainties in parameter estimation. Source confusion primarily arises from overlapping time-frequency tracks of multiple signals. We find that when the relative difference in detector-frame chirp masses between two signals is less than 0.2 percent, the uncertainty in parameter estimation increases significantly. However, this degradation can be substantially mitigated by incorporating higher-order modes into the waveform model. Furthermore, using full Bayesian inference, we demonstrate the clear advantage of higher-order modes in reducing systematic biases in parameter recovery. These results provide important guidance for future data analysis strategies in space-based gravitational wave observations.