标题： 复杂的总主教：预测方济各教皇的继任者 显示英文标题

标题： Complex totopapa: predicting the successor to pope Francis

摘要： 在教皇方济各去世后，枢机团将在秘密会议上召开会议以选举新的罗马天主教会教皇。 在本报告中，我们提出了一种计算框架，用于分析有投票权的枢机主教们的思想景观，并估计即将到来的教皇选举的可能结果。 我们收集了描述每位枢机主教在目前教会相关的各种主题上的立场的公开文本数据，这些主题包括性问题、移民、贫穷、治理和宗教间对话。 这些文本使用基于变压器的语言模型进行嵌入，以构建枢机主教之间的语义相似性矩阵。 然后，我们利用这个矩阵模拟秘密会议中的投票动态，将其作为思想接近程度的代理。 该模型生成了选举结果的主题条件概率预测和整体概率预测。 我们报告了在各种场景下预测的主要候选人，并讨论了嵌入揭示的派系集群结构。 结果显示，这是一个两极分化且核心候选人数量较少的领域，在主题场景中，前国务卿皮耶特罗·帕罗林始终是最具广泛可选性的候选人，其次是知名人士和局外人名字，如枢机主教布里辛和塔格尔。 文档末尾增加了选举后的分析。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Following the death of Pope Francis, the College of Cardinals will convene in conclave to elect the new Pontiff of the Roman Catholic Church. In this report, we present a computational framework for analyzing the ideological landscape of the cardinal electors and estimating the likely outcomes of the upcoming papal election. We collected public textual data describing each cardinal's positions on a range of topics currently relevant to the Church, including sexuality, migration, poverty, governance and interreligious dialogue. These texts were embedded using a transformer-based language model to construct a semantic similarity matrix among cardinals. We then simulated conclave voting dynamics using this matrix as a proxy for ideological proximity. The model produced both topic-conditioned and aggregate probabilistic forecasts of election outcomes. We report the predicted leading candidates under various scenarios and discuss the structure of factional clustering revealed by the embeddings. The results highlight a polarized field with a small number of structurally central candidates, among whom Pietro Parolin, the former secretary of state, consistently emerges as the most broadly electable across thematic scenarios, followed by both high-profile and outsider names such as card. Brislin and Tagle. Post-election analysis added at the end of the document.