标题： 当激励与引导相遇：促进对被低估政策的预算分配 显示英文标题

标题： When Incentives and Nudges Meet: Promoting Budget Allocations for Undervalued Policies

摘要： 预算官员通常根据可用的财政支持和预期成果来评估公共项目提案。然而，诸如时间贴现和心理犹豫等行为因素可能导致对那些延迟但效益显著的项目投资不足。本研究调查了财务激励和非财务引导是否能影响地方政府的预算决策。我们进行了一项全国范围的邮寄式调查实验，针对日本各市政当局的预算官员，并收到了490份有效回复。使用2*2的随机设计方案，我们测试了财务激励（50%的国家补贴）和非财务引导（损失框架和同伴信息）的独立和联合效果。所有三种处理相比对照组都显著提高了评估的预算金额。组合组的效果最大（大约高出110万日元，p<.01）。财务激励和引导独立来看都使评估金额增加了约65万到67万日元（p<.01）。值得注意的是，只有引导措施提高了自筹资金部分的预算。这些发现表明低成本的行为干预如何能够改善对被低估项目的预算评估。作为一个应用实例，我们将实验嵌入到了涉及日本HPV疫苗推广的案例中，但这种方法可以广泛应用于需要前瞻预算决策的其他公共政策领域。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Budget officers often assess public project proposals based on available financial support and expected outcomes. However, behavioral factors such as time discounting and psychological hesitation may lead to underinvestment in programs with delayed but significant benefits. This study investigates whether financial incentives and non-financial nudges can influence budgetary decisions in local governments. We conducted a nationwide mail-based survey experiment targeting budget officers in Japanese municipalities and received 490 valid responses. Using a 2*2 randomized design, we tested the independent and combined effects of a financial incentive (a 50% national subsidy) and a non-financial nudge (loss framing and peer information). All three treatments significantly increased assessed budget amounts compared to the control group. The largest effect appeared in the combination group (approximately 1.1 million JPY higher, p < .01). Both the financial incentive and the nudge independently increased assessments by approximately 650,000-670,000 JPY (p < .01). Notably, only the nudge raised the self-financed portion of the budget. These findings demonstrate how low-cost behavioral interventions can improve budget assessments for undervalued projects. As an application, we embedded the experiment in a case involving HPV vaccine promotion in Japan, but the approach can be broadly relevant to other public policy domains requiring forward-looking budget decisions.