标题： 卫星和手机数据揭示暴力如何影响阿富汗的季节性迁移 显示英文标题

标题： Satellite and Mobile Phone Data Reveal How Violence Affects Seasonal Migration in Afghanistan

摘要： 季节性迁移在稳定农村经济和维持农业家庭生计方面起着关键作用。 暴力和内战长期以来被认为会扰乱这些劳动力流动，但由于冲突地区迁移数据的缺乏，这一假设在历史上一直难以验证。 聚焦于2021年塔利班接管前的8年阿富汗，我们首先展示了如何利用卫星图像推断鸦片收获的时间，这为大量季节性工人提供了相对高薪的工作。 然后，我们使用全国范围的手机记录数据集来描述对这一收获的迁移反应，并检验暴力和内战是否以及如何干扰这种迁移。 我们发现，平均而言，鸦片种植水平较高的地区比没有鸦片种植的地区接收了显著更多的季节性移民。 这些劳动力流动对来源地或目的地的个别暴力事件，包括导致大量死亡的极端暴力，表现出令人惊讶的韧性。 然而，季节性迁移受到更长期的冲突模式的影响，例如起源地和目的地地区的塔利班控制程度。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Seasonal migration plays a critical role in stabilizing rural economies and sustaining the livelihoods of agricultural households. Violence and civil conflict have long been thought to disrupt these labor flows, but this hypothesis has historically been hard to test given the lack of reliable data on migration in conflict zones. Focusing on Afghanistan in the 8-year period prior to the Taliban's takeover in 2021, we first demonstrate how satellite imagery can be used to infer the timing of the opium harvest, which employs a large number of seasonal workers in relatively well-paid jobs. We then use a dataset of nationwide mobile phone records to characterize the migration response to this harvest, and examine whether and how violence and civil conflict disrupt this migration. We find that, on average, districts with high levels of poppy cultivation receive significantly more seasonal migrants than districts with no poppy cultivation. These labor flows are surprisingly resilient to idiosyncratic violent events at the source or destination, including extreme violence resulting in large numbers of fatalities. However, seasonal migration is affected by longer-term patterns of conflict, such as the extent of Taliban control in origin and destination locations.