标题： 从革命到崩溃：也门国家崩溃的实证分析 显示英文标题

标题： From Revolution to Ruin: An Empirical Analysis Yemen's State Collapse

摘要： 我们通过构建反事实基准，利用1990-2022年间37个发展中国家的平衡面板数据，评估也门2011年革命及其后续内战对其宏观经济轨迹、人类发展和治理质量的广泛影响。 基于具有替代收缩制度的矩阵完成估计器和增强LASSO的合成控制方法，我们生成了也门关键宏观经济总量、人口和健康指标以及治理指标的假设无冲突路径。 在各种方法的全部范围内，冲突的爆发伴随着经济和制度发展的剧烈逆转。 我们发现产出和收入经历了前所未有的收缩，投资和贸易开放度急剧恶化，预期寿命和人类发展的成果普遍被逆转。 同时，政治问责、行政能力、法治和腐败控制的衡量指标崩溃，反映了系统性制度崩溃。 各种实证策略结果的一致性证明了我们估计的稳健性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We assess the broad repercussions of Yemen's 2011 revolution and subsequent civil war on its macroeconomic trajectories, human development, and quality of governance by constructing counterfactual benchmarks using a balanced panel of 37 developing countries over 1990-2022. Drawing on matrix-completion estimators with alternative shrinkage regimes and a LASSO-augmented synthetic-control method, we generate Yemen's hypothetical no-conflict paths for key macroeconomic aggregates, demographic and health indicators, and governance metrics. Across the full spectrum of methods, the conflict's outbreak corresponds with a dramatic reversal of economic and institutional development. We find that output and income experience an unprecedented contraction, investment and trade openness deteriorate sharply, and gains in life expectancy and human development are broadly reversed. Simultaneously, measures of political accountability, administrative capacity, rule of law, and corruption control collapse, reflecting systemic institutional breakdown. The concordance of results across a variety of empirical strategies attests to the robustness of our estimates.