标题： 评估一级方程式大奖赛资格赛表现的预测能力 显示英文标题

标题： Evaluating the Predictive Power of Qualifying Performance in Formula One Grand Prix

摘要： 一级方程式赛车周末的结构围绕多个环节展开：练习赛、排位赛和大奖赛本身，每个环节都对最终比赛表现有所贡献。 这项研究分析了近二十年的比赛，涵盖了7,800个车手-周末观察数据，以量化每个环节对比赛结果的预测价值。 在更大的数据集和纵向视角上扩展了先前的研究，使用列联系数和有序逻辑回归进行的统计分析更新了先前知识，表明排位赛表现是最终比赛位置的最强决定因素，超过了比赛起跑位置和练习赛结果作为指标。 与比赛开始时的发车位置不同，发车位置容易受到处罚和外部干扰的影响，而排位赛结果提供了对车手和赛车能力的无偏测量。 这些发现加强了已经对排位赛的战略重视，为排位赛在不同赛季和时代决定比赛结果的主导作用提供了实证验证。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Formula One race weekends are structured around multiple sessions: practices, qualifying, and the Grand Prix itself, each contributing to final race performance. This study analyzes nearly two decades of races, encompassing 7,800 driver-weekend observations, to quantify the predictive value of each session on race outcomes. Expanding on prior research with a larger dataset and a longitudinal perspective, statistical analyses using contingency coefficients and Ordinal Logistic Regression update prior knowledge that qualifying performance is the strongest determinant of final race position, surpassing race start positions and practice results as indicators. Unlike grid positioning at the start of the race, which is susceptible to penalties and external disruptions, qualifying results provide an unbiased measure of driver and car capability. These findings reinforce the strategic emphasis already placed on qualifying, offering an empirical validation of its dominant role in determining race outcomes across varied seasons and eras.