标题： 一种预测极端冲突死亡人数的极简物理信息模型 显示英文标题

标题： A Minimalist Physics-Informed Model for Predicting Extreme Conflict Fatalities

摘要： 武装冲突的复杂性体现在可能跨越多个数量级的死亡人数上。 本研究提出了一种极简的、基于物理原理的方法，使用贝叶斯建模和基于能量的动力学来估计国家层面极端冲突死亡的可能性。 利用玻尔兹曼分布构建一个狄利克雷先验，我们制定了一种预测措施，该措施捕捉了冲突严重程度的潜在熵和能量状态。 通过对112个冲突国家的数据集进行分析，我们支持所提出措施的预测能力。 研究结果表明，通过一种最小但理论上有依据的方法，可以更好地理解极端冲突事件。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The complexity of armed conflicts is expressed in the number of fatalities that may span several orders of magnitude. This study presents a minimalist, physics-informed approach to estimating the likelihood of extreme conflict fatalities at the country level of analysis using Bayesian modeling and energy-based dynamics. Leveraging the Boltzmann distribution to construct a Dirichlet prior, we formulate a predictive measure that captures the underlying entropy and energy states of conflict severity. By analyzing a dataset of 112 countries in conflict, we support the predictive power of the proposed measure. The findings suggest that extreme conflict events may be better understood through a minimal but theoretically grounded approach.