标题： 防止提取型绿色氢气产业：电网扩展和绿色氢气在肯尼亚及其对肯尼亚的风险与收益 显示英文标题

标题： Preventing an Extractive Green Hydrogen Industry: Risks and Benefits of Grid Expansion and Green Hydrogen in and for Kenya

摘要： 本研究评估了并网氢电解槽在推动成本效益高且特别是公平的绿色氢产业在肯尼亚的发展中的作用，以满足国内和国际的需求和市场。 使用具有县一级空间分辨率的多节点容量扩展模型，我们评估了电解槽部署在各种可再生能源和需求情景下对电力成本、电网灵活性和碳强度的影响。 结果表明，与业务常态情景相比，到2050年，电解槽可使平准化电力成本（LCOE）减少高达30%，并实现累计系统成本节省4.6亿美元。 作为可吸收过剩发电的灵活需求，电解槽减少弃风，并支持大规模风电整合，同时仍需要多样化的可再生能源电力组合。 到2050年，所产生的氢气的平准化成本为每千克3.2美元，其由电力使用产生的碳强度低于每千克氢气1千克二氧化碳，表明很可能符合国际认证阈值。 无论需求轨迹如何，这些好处都会持续，尽管其规模取决于风电扩展的速度。 空间分析显示基础设施收益分布不均，强调了以公平为导向的规划的必要性。 这些发现表明，如果与风电投资、输电和公平基础设施部署协调规划，电网整合的氢气可以降低成本，支持认证，并促进更公平的氢气发展模式。 换句话说，将电解槽连接到电网不仅会使肯尼亚生产绿色氢气，还会使肯尼亚成为绿色氢气的生产国。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This study evaluates the role of grid-connected hydrogen electrolyzers in advancing a cost-effective and in particular an equitable green hydrogen industry in Kenya to serve both domestic and international needs and markets. Using a multi-nodal capacity expansion model with county-level spatial resolution, we assess how electrolyzer deployment affects electricity cost, grid flexibility, and carbon intensity under various renewable and demand scenarios. Results show that electrolyzers enable up to 30 percent reduction in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and US\$460 million in cumulative system cost savings by 2050 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. As a flexible demand available to absorb surplus generation, electrolyzers reduce curtailment and support large-scale wind integration while still requiring a diverse mix of renewable electricity. The resulting hydrogen reaches a levelized cost of \$3.2 per kg by 2050, and its carbon intensity from electricity use falls below one kg carbon dioxide per kg of hydrogen, suggesting likely compliance with international certification thresholds. Benefits persist across all demand trajectories, though their scale depends on the pace of wind expansion. Spatial analyses reveal unequal distribution of infrastructure gains, underscoring the need for equity-oriented planning. These findings suggest that grid-integrated hydrogen, if planned in coordination with wind investment, transmission, and equitable infrastructure deployment, can reduce costs, support certification, and promote a more equitable model of hydrogen development. In other words, connecting electrolyzers to the grid will not only make green hydrogen in Kenya but also for Kenya.