标题： 从存在潜在识别的捕获-再捕获数据中估计暂时性外迁 显示英文标题

标题： Estimating temporary emigration from capture-recapture data in the presence of latent identification

摘要： 大多数捕捉-再捕捉模型假设个体在采样期间要么不迁出，要么永久迁出采样区域。 当个体暂时离开采样区域并在后续的捕捉机会中返回时，这一假设会被违反，这可能导致在正常捕捉-再捕捉模型下得出有偏或精度较低的推论。 现有的临时迁出模型要求个体能够被唯一且正确地识别。 据我们所知，迄今为止尚无研究解决在存在潜在个体识别的情况下出现的临时迁出问题，这种情况可能出现在许多场景中，例如误识别、数据整合和批次标记。 在本文中，我们提出了一种新的潜在多项式临时迁出建模框架，用于分析具有潜在识别的捕捉-再捕捉数据。 该框架适用于封闭种群和开放种群问题，能够处理有或没有个体识别的数据，并能灵活地结合不同的迁出过程，包括完全随机和马尔可夫迁出。 通过模拟，我们证明了在各种迁出情景下，模型参数可以被可靠地估计。 我们将所提出的框架应用于使用批次标记在Pollock的稳健设计下收集的黄金mantella真实数据集。 结果表明，考虑临时迁出相比之前不考虑临时迁出的模型能更好地拟合数据。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Most capture-recapture models assume that individuals either do not emigrate or emigrate permanently from the sampling area during the sampling period. This assumption is violated when individuals temporarily leave the sampling area and return during later capture occasions, which can result in biased or less precise inferences under normal capture-recapture models. Existing temporary emigration models require that individuals are uniquely and correctly identified. To our knowledge, no studies to date have addressed temporary emigration in the presence of latent individual identification, which can arise in many scenarios such as misidentification, data integration, and batch marking. In this paper, we propose a new latent multinomial temporary emigration modelling framework for analysing capture-recapture data with latent identification. The framework is applicable to both closed- and open-population problems, accommodates data with or without individual identification, and flexibly incorporates different emigration processes, including the completely random and Markovian emigration. Through simulations, we demonstrate that model parameters can be reliably estimated in various emigration scenarios. We apply the proposed framework to a real dataset on golden mantella collected using batch marks under Pollock's robust design. The results show that accounting for temporary emigration provides a better fit to the data compared to the previous model without temporary emigration.